Russian Tanks Invade Georgia

[Boeman]

TBLISI, Georgia (CNN) -- Russian television Friday showed a convoy of Russian tanks and said they were heading into the breakaway Georgian region of South Ossetia as escalating tensions over the region threatened to boil into full blown conflict.

The move came after Russia denounced as "aggressive" a Georgian troops military offensive to regain control over the province, vowing to respond.

Russian authorities earlier said several of its peacekeepers died in a Georgian attack in South Ossetia, which borders Russia and has strong ties to its vast northern neighbor, and they vowed not to leave Russian citizens in the territory unprotected.

"The Georgian leadership has launched a dirty adventure," a statement from Russia's Defense Ministry said on Friday. "We will not leave our peacekeepers and Russian citizens unprotected."

Russian Prime Minister Vladimir Putin said Georgia started the fighting and warned that Russia would respond to their actions.

"Heavy weapons and artillery have been sent there, and tanks have been added. Deaths and injuries have been reported, including among Russian peacekeepers," Putin said in comments carried Friday by Russia's Interfax news agency. Watch more about the increased violence in Georgia »

"It's all very sad and alarming. And, of course, there will be a response."

Earlier Friday, Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili said in a televised statement that Russian aircraft bombed several Georgian villages and other civilian facilities.

He added that there were injuries and damage to buildings. "A full-scale aggression has been launched against Georgia," he said.

A Georgian official reported that seven people were hurt in the attack, the Associated Press said.

Saakashvili urged Russia to immediately stop bombing Georgian territory. "Georgia will not yield its territory or renounce its freedom," he said.

He also called for the full-scale mobilization of Georgian reserve forces as fighting continued to rage in South Ossetia's capital.

Meanwhile, NATO Secretary-General Jaap de Hoop Scheffer issued a statement Friday saying he was seriously concerned about the recent events in the region, and called on "all sides to end armed clashes and begin direct talks."

"We urge all sides to refrain from violence and to begin direct talks."

Russian peacekeepers are in South Ossetia under a 1992 agreement by Russian, Georgian, and South Ossetian authorities to maintain what has been a fragile peace. The mixed peacekeeping force also includes Georgian and South Ossetian troops.

The latest events came just hours after the U.N. Security Council finished an emergency session to discuss a dramatic escalation of violence in Georgia and South Ossetia. The session ended Friday morning without a statement about the fighting.

Violence has been mounting in the region in recent days, with sporadic clashes between Georgian forces and South Ossetian separatists. South Ossetia declared its independence from Georgia in the early 1990s, but its independence is not internationally recognized.

Georgian troops launched new attacks in South Ossetia late Thursday after a top government official said a unilateral cease-fire offer was met with separatist artillery fire.

"The objective of the operation is to protect the civilian population, to ensure their security and then convince the separatists that there is not a military solution to this conflict," said Alexander Lomaia, the secretary of Georgia's National Security Council.

Lomaia said Georgian troops were responding proportionately to separatist mortar and artillery attacks on two villages -- attacks he said followed the cease-fire and call for negotiations by Saakashvili.

The official news agency of the South Ossetian government reported heavy shelling in the territory's capital, Tskhinvali, that left dozens of buildings ablaze.

About 2,000 Georgian troops attempted to storm Tskhinvali overnight and were regrouping south of the city, according to Russia's ITAR-TASS news agency.

Around 10 a.m. Friday, Georgia said Russian military aircraft violated Georgian airspace and dropped two bombs on Kareli, a part of Georgia that is about 50 miles northwest of the capital, Tblisi, and is not in the conflict zone, said Shota Utiashvili, spokesman for the Georgian Ministry of Interior.

Georgia, located on the Black Sea coast between Russia and Turkey, has been split by Russian-backed separatist movements in South Ossetia and another region, Abkhazia.

Georgian and South Ossetian negotiators had been scheduled to meet Friday in Tskhinvali, Moscow's chief negotiator, Yuri Popov, told the Russian news agency Interfax.

Saakashvili announced Thursday night that he had ordered his troops to cease fire while the negotiators met, but Lomaia said the call was met with more attacks.

In addition, Lomaia said, hundreds of "mercenaries" -- or "volunteers," as the South Ossetians described them -- are pouring across the border from Russia to join the fight.

The commander of a Russian peacekeeping mission has told Georgian officials that his troops are unable to control the situation, Lomaia said.

Interestingly enough, the Georgian president is gave a live television interview to CNN as the news broke and indeed confirmed that two Russian aircraft were shot down by Georgian forces after a supposed bombing run on civilian targets.

[akd]

GRAD?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548611.stm

Georgian Su-25s

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548664.stm

Russian armor heading into Georgia

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7548715.stm

more Russian armor, SP arty and apparently BUK-M3s

http://life.ru/video/4932

[Redwolf]

The counteroffensive will smash Russia.

[akd]

err...Buk M1s, rather. I don't think M3s are deployed yet.

Things didn't go so well for someone in S. Ossetian capital...

http://img.lenta.ru/news/2008/08/08/stopsheling/picture.jpg

[SSgt Viljuri]

err...Buk M1s, rather. I don't think M3s are deployed yet.

And they provide what? It is not possible to hit even a barn door with those if basic electronic and other countermeasures are applied.

As even the Georgians are well aware...

[akd]

Reuters update with lots of pics:

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSL768040420080808

http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20080808&t=2&i=5496673&w=&r=2008-08-08T141656Z_01_L7680404_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE0

A Russian fighter flies over a Georgian position near the city of Tskhinvali, 62 miles from Tbilisi, August 8, 2008.

REUTERS/Irakli Gedenedze

[volfrahm]

Wasn't there a training exercise by the U.S. Military a few weeks ago in Georgia? I wonder if they are still there.

[Wicky]

http://www.reuters.com/article/newsOne/idUSWAT00988720080808

About 1,100 U.S. military personnel were in Georgia for a training exercise last month but they have since left the country, a defense official said.

[volfrahm]

No so much news coverage on this little war. And little is mentioned about U.S. Military involvement in Georgia...strange. Maybe it means Georgia is going to be left to defend herself?

It's going to be interesting to see how the 2,000 Georgian troops in Iraq will play out. Considering how small the Georgian Military is, they will have to leave as soon as possible, right?

http://www.reuters.com/resources/r/?m=02&d=20080808&t=2&i=5498129&w=&r=2008-08-08T155018Z_01_L7680404_RTRUKOP_0_PICTURE2

I'm assuming that the uniforms were supplied by the U.S. Military. Why do they resemble so much the USMC camouflage pattern?

[Subvet]

Georgian defense officials have said they are immediately pulling 1,000 troops out of Iraq.

[RMC]

Why do they resemble so much the USMC camouflage pattern?

I doubt they were supplied by us.

It's just military fashion. The Colombians and South Korean marines have adopted digital patterns that are very similar to the USMC pattern, but not identical. It's not unlike when the US Army had spiked helmets in the 1880s. They had looked at the outcome of the Franco-Prussian War and concluded "it's gotta be the helmets." (http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/i?pp/ils:@field(NUMBER+@band(cph+3a07264)):displayType= 1:m856sd=cph:m856sf=3a07264)

[akd]

Georgian Su-25 shoot down, Russian arty firing and someone's tanks advancing (Russian and S. Ossetian?)

http://www.vesti.ru/videos?vid=143324&cid=1&doc_type=news&doc_id=199676

[easy-v]

Georgian defense officials have said they are immediately pulling 1,000 troops out of Iraq.

I wonder if that is what the object of the Russian excercise was? Random thought...

[Elmar Bijlsma]

I wonder if that is what the object of the Russian excercise was? Random thought...

Why would they want that? I don't think that's a major Russian concern.
I think they are more interested in letting the Ossetia situation continue, thus nixing Georgian NATO membership. Probably also why Georgia took the bull by the horns. If the Georgians get the South Ossetia issue sorted, they'll find doors open at NATO HQ. Once in, they can finally tell the Russians to go feck themselves.
Or the Russians might just go whole hog and try to take back all of Georgia.

I wonder what the Ukraine will do?

[Sven Dufva]

What is the average marching speed of an armoured column consisting of 150 armoured vehicles plus the necessary supply trucks, including the time used in giving marching orders and such?

From the Rok tunnel at the Georgian border, leading to north Ossetia, it is roughly 50 km to Tskhinvali where heavy fighting is taking place. Looking at the Google Earth I found the closest Russian military base in Mozdok, which is by road about 200 km from the Georgian border.

Do they have a staging area for their armoured battalions closer to the border or did they cover 250 km in less than 12 hours? The president of Georgia told in the CNN news they reacted first when they heard the Russian forces were already enroute.

When Soviet Union invaded Afganistan on christmas day to avoid an immediate international wave of protests, Russia starting a war in the beginning of olympic games wouldn't surprise me. I just need to get the timetable confirmed.

[Wildhack]

Just (vaguely) remembering a blurb I heard on the tv yesterday, I believe there are about 400 American military advisers currently in Georgia.

[akd]

100-150 military, 2000 US nationals total, I believe. All the advisors are accounted for.

[volfrahm]

I wonder how long this whole invasion thing was in the works. How could Georgia not see this coming? If they did, they would've not sent 2,000 troops to Iraq, unless, of course, they thought the U.S. would some how feel obligated to help out an ally for helping out in Operation Iraqi Freedom. Why is Georgia still leaving 1,000 troops in Iraq? Are they that confident in winning?

And I'm still perplexed on the lack of coverage on this invasion/war. Here we have a major superpower invading a U.S. ally, yet other stories such as political affairs are more important? Very strange indeed!

[SSgt Viljuri]

Bigduke6, any comments or are you too busy at the moment? :mad:;)

Not to claim that there's anything funny about this.

[Member # 16622]

Do they have a staging area for their armoured battalions closer to the border or did they cover 250 km in less than 12 hours? The president of Georgia told in the CNN news they reacted first when they heard the Russian forces were already enroute.


They had been staging on the border on 'exercise' for awhile. Georgians agreed to the cease fire, but resumed fighting as South Ossetians kept the fire up on border. As Georgians returned fire, Russian had the pretext to move in. Seems planned pretty old school way..

And like Viljuri said in the other board, expect Russian claims of genocide soon as additional reason for them to come in. Of course, they have their 'citizens' to defend too. Those citizens just happen to be Ossetians who been given the citizenships during the last years.

Will the Russians stop at South Ossetia or not? Atleast according to OSCE Georgian side has been very willing to start talks about cease fire, while Ossetians has refused all initiatives. Not that Georgians seem to have cared much about collateral damage on their attack yesterday..

[slug88]

They had been staging on the border on 'exercise' for awhile. Georgians agreed to the cease fire, but resumed fighting as South Ossetians kept the fire up on border. As Georgians returned fire, Russian had the pretext to move in. Seems planned pretty old school way..


Keep in mind that the Georgian "return fire" consisted of leveling of half of Tskhinvali via Grad missile barrage. I'm not so naive to think the Russians are guided by any sort of altruistic motives, by to me the Georgians lost any sort of credibility as the innocent victim when they employed unguided high explosives against a civilian center. Furthermore, ten Russian peacekeepers were killed as a result of the Georgian artillery, who were there by UN mandate. Neither side can claim to have the moral high ground here.

[SSgt Viljuri]

Culpability?

Probably the blame can be attributed to many directions, a part of it can be traced back to the Sudetenland scenario (namely to the Teutonic hordes, giving the contemporary Russians too many good ideas how to create incidents with their neighbors), maybe a bit to the Hungarian uprising (the US is to blame if they give false assurances in a lax manner) and surely the nationalistic chauvinism is in play too (both by the Russians and the Georgians).

Then again, market prices of oil were in decline, did our Russian friends feel they don't want to sell their oil too cheaply? Or did the Georgians feel they can make a sneak attack and restore their national integrity, current enclaves being by and large designer creations by the Russian intelligence services in the early 1990's?

[Boris London]

I think the georgian action is pretty reckless being seen as the first to the punch..
I don't think this is going to work out for anyone..

Boris
London

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Furthermore, ten Russian peacekeepers were killed as a result of the Georgian artillery, who were there by UN mandate.
Really? If the Russians are there on behalf of the UN, the UN are keeping quiet about it.

[Stalin's Organist]

The "peacekeeping" forces in Sth Ossetia were originally Russian, Georgian & Ossetian under the terms of a ceasefire from 1992 according to Wiki.

[Michael Emrys]

Why is Georgia still leaving 1,000 troops in Iraq?

Perhaps 1,000 is all they can move in one wave?

Michael

[volfrahm]

Wow, the news coverage on this war sucks. In the grand scheme of things, this little conflict is way more important than last years Israeli war with the Hezzies, yet no good coverage!

And wouldn't you think the folks at CNN or BBC would get a heads up for these kinds of wars?

Predictions, anyone? My guess is Russia will occupy all of Georgia and screw around with the pipeline.

[Michael Emrys]

Predictions, anyone? My guess is Russia will occupy all of Georgia and screw around with the pipeline.

That's kind of what I've been thinking too. On the other hand, maybe this is just a message to the Georgians: "Don't try to screw around with us or we'll get really rough."

Michael

[JonS]

I doubt they were supplied by us.

It's just military fashion. ... It's not unlike when the US Army had spiked helmets in the 1880s. They had looked at the outcome of the Franco-Prussian War and concluded "it's gotta be the helmets." (http://lcweb2.loc.gov/cgi-bin/query/i?pp/ils:@field(NUMBER+@band(cph+3a07264)):displayType= 1:m856sd=cph:m856sf=3a07264)
I recall hearing a theory a while ago about victorious forces appropriating the headdress of their defeated enemies as an in-your-face kind of thing. I suppose it's a more socially acceptable version of eating their hearts and/or brains.

Though ... I've never quite got that whole eat-their-heart/brain thing. I mean, you just beat them, big time. Eating their innards - and absorbing their spirit - is going to make you weaker :confused:

[Runyan99]

The Georgian President was on CNN today, AFTER coverage of John Edwards' infidelity, of course. The media knows what is important, after all.

The President seemed pretty cool to me, not panicky OH MY GOD THE RUSSIANS ARE GOING TO CONQUER MY COUNTRY in any way. It looks to me, and I suspect he knows, that this is a limited conflict concerning two areas of the country and some pocket population of Russian loyalists/seperatists. Based on what I see on TV, this doesn't look like an all out blitz to wipe Georgia off the map.

This looks like an Israeli incursion into Lebanon type of thing to me, and I suspect it will blow over soon.

[Michael Emrys]

I recall hearing a theory a while ago about victorious forces appropriating the headdress of their defeated enemies as an in-your-face kind of thing.

Yeah, I don't know when or where it got started, but I think the tradition was well under way by the time of the Napoleonic wars.

I suppose it's a more socially acceptable version of eating their hearts and/or brains.

Interesting thought. I think it's more directly derived from appropriating a defeated enemy's arms though.

Though ... I've never quite got that whole eat-their-heart/brain thing. I mean, you just beat them, big time. Eating their innards - and absorbing their spirit - is going to make you weaker :confused:

Yeah, that one puzzled me too. Seems like eating a defeated enemy is just doing them a favor. Stealing their weaponry makes a lot of sense though.

Michael

[Affentitten]

I'm scratching my head over the fact that the Russians bombed Grozny into the stome age to stop them breaking away, but when someone wants to break away from somewhere else, they pull out all the stops in support. That's the Caucasus.

Background from the War Nerd http://www.exile.ru/articles/detail.php?ARTICLE_ID=7426&IBLOCK_ID=35&phrase_id=12412&PAGE=1

[akd]

There are indications Russia has launched a two-pronged attack into Georgia proper from S. Ossetia and Abkhazia.

[volfrahm]

According Nash's game, "F**k You Buddy", order is only possible when th motives for wars/everyday life are selfish. So, if Russia truly invaded Georgia because of some 50,000 recent Russian passport holders, then mathematically, more chaos is ahead of us. Hopefully, Russia invaded because of the pipeline in Georgia or some other selfish reason. If not, then more trouble?

[John Kettler]

According to its own crawl, CNN had a news crew at the Georgian airfield the Russians bombed. Said crew was 500 meters away from the impact zone. For calibration, my brother, George, now retired from the U.S. Army, said that hostile 120mm mortar fire in Iraq landing a kilometer away was pretty scary and rough on the body, so would imagine the news team probably needs new underwear and will need about a week to get the adrenaline levels back down.

A close friend told me the U.S. ambassador tried to lecture the Russian ambassador on the wrongness of invading a country without provocation, only to be pointedly told, given some of our actions, he had no leg to stand on. I therefore wouldn't count on any swift crisis resolution via moral example.

In other news, we've learned that the Georgians are flying Israeli built Hermes 450 UAVs. There is a very good article on this in the Moscow Defense Brief.

http://mdb.cast.ru/mdb/2-2008/item2/article3/

This article also raises some worthwhile technical issues regarding the whole UAV that filmed its killer scenario awhile back over Abkhazia.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Stalin's Organist]

It raises no worthwhile technical issues at all - it is is dismissive without evidence, and is just plain wrong about the real time video issue (http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/hermes_450/Hermes_450.html)(for those not bothered to read the article it says that detailed pics are only stored on board and only low res ones are sent due to bandwidth issues....which possibly says something about the state of Russian UAVs...)

[John Kettler]

Stalin's Organist,

I've been out of the military aerospace field since late June of 1989, but the way data linked imagery used to work, given the very real storage, processing and transmission issues of the period, was that hi-res stuff was stored on, say, an RF-4C for processing upon landing, but a low-res signal went out via real time data link. What I've seen lately indicates the situation's improved markedly, but hanging avionics on a smallish UAV is an entirely different issue than the relatively unlimited space, weight and power available on the recon plane. This might account for the apparent discrepancy. Here's the Hermes 450. Note URL surgery.

http://www.israeli-weapons. /weapons/aircraft/uav/hermes_450/Hermes_450.html

Observe how this site it has a big, crisp, clear vid of the Abkhazia shootdown, from which I deduce the Georgian Hermes 450s are sporting the Compass payload (see payload box) or similar. Am also wondering whether the UAV's operators may've gotten cueing to look in the direction of the MiG-29. In any event, it's clear whatever hit the UAV shattered it utterly. I found the evidence of the shootdown credible at the time, though I wasn't at all happy with the poor vid quality I had to work from. That said, we have now reached a level of widespread technical sophistication in which, given enough resources and time, just about anything visual can be faked, though I'm told it's much harder to do with an object in motion than in a single still.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Wybert Takahashi]

Yeah, that one puzzled me too. Seems like eating a defeated enemy is just doing them a favor. Stealing their weaponry makes a lot of sense though.

Michael

It isn't unknown for hunter gatherer types to catch an animal and eat the organs, leaving the muscles for the sands of time/bugs/cold, cold ground/dirt.

Lovely saturated fat laced organ meat, that is the good stuff.

Oh sacred culture, or just god damn biology again.

[Affentitten]

Without wanting to give a blanket anthropological answer, the main hook is that you are eating the soul of an enemy warrior. He might have lost, but he was still brave enough to face you. You don't eat the organs of his womenfolk or children.

[von Lucke]

Yeah, I don't know when or where it got started, but I think the tradition was well under way by the time of the Napoleonic wars.

Interesting thought. I think it's more directly derived from appropriating a defeated enemy's arms though.

Yeah, that one puzzled me too. Seems like eating a defeated enemy is just doing them a favor. Stealing their weaponry makes a lot of sense though.


In an attempt to unite the two skeins of this thread:

The origin of the word "trophy" comes from the ancient Greek military tradition of the winner of a battle creating a monument on the battlefield out of the defeated enemy's armor and weapons. Derived from the word "Tropaion", from the verb "trope" (to rout). Things haven't changed that much.

And:

Ukraine is practically the only CIS country to openly back Georgia demanding that Russia immediately withdraw its troops from the territory of Georgia. Yesterday Kiev threatened to block the returning of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet to Sevastopol in case the ships take part in a sea blockade of Georgia.

I wonder how far the Hunkies are really willing to go to support their pals in Tiblisi? And what is the US doing --- besides the hypocritical rebuke from our ambassador, that is. We going to leave another East European semi-ally hanging in the event of a Russian invasion? Not like there isn't a precedent...

[easy-v]

One thing is for sure, is that it is going to be interesting to see how this all came about.

If Saakashvili expected a measured and restrained response from Putin, he must have been smoking something.

The entire affair looks like there was no preparation done from the Georgian side (example: emergency pullout of troops from Iraq).

From the Russian side, there is nothing but atrocity and genocide stories, and there appears to be an orchestrated propaganda effort underway (I got a rare chuckle from that War Nerd article where he talks about where he was told to be sympathetic to the Russians, and his last paragraph was surely put there to pass some sort of censorial muster.)

Did Saakashvili and Georgia simply "step in it"? No doubt Russia has been provoking them recently, but are the Georgians that stupid to think that they could wrest these disputed areas away from the Russians by force? I am not sure I can buy that on the face of it.

[Stalin's Organist]

Georgia is like the Czechs in 1938 - with no land border to it's desired aly NATO it's out there hanging and there's nothign anyone can physically do to stop Russia doing what it wants short of declaring war and sending in the nukes.

there's plenty of hypocrisy from all sides on this one:

Kossovo - "West" backs small area wanting independance, russia opposes it
Chechenya - Russia opposes small area wanting independance
Ossetia & Abkhazia - exactly the opposite from both "sides"

Basically national status/relations are still operating from the basis of the Treaty of Westphalia 1648, and there's nothing much in it or derived from it over the last 360 years that covers the situation of small "pocket" entities that want to split from larger ones.

JK the Hermes is not a small aeroplane - it is described as a "medium" UAV, and it's wingspan of 10.5 metres is 2 feet short of that of a Spitfre V! It has a 150kg payload - which is plenty for satelite communications with essentially unlimted bandwidth as mentioned in the article I linked to. Indeed the communications hardware is completely independant of teh platform as long as there's room for an aerial - hand launched UAV's (http://www.israeli-weapons.com/weapons/aircraft/uav/skylark/Skylark.html)have satelite links these days!

[JonS]

I've been out of the military aerospace field since late June of 1989, but the way data linked imagery used to work, ...
OMFG. No wonder you are so far off the park with your pronouncements.

Technology has moved on quite a bit in the last two decades. There's that whole interweb thingy, as well as mass miniturisation. In 1989 a reasonably spec'd notebook was an Intel 80C286 processor running at 12 MHz running MS DOS 3.31. Internal RAM of 640 KB, a 3.5" floppy, a 40 MB hard drive, and no network capability. An LCD display with CGA compatibility, 640 x 200 resolution in four shades of gray. Weight around 2.8 kg.

Now a notebook comes with Dual-Core processor running Windows Vista at 2.0GHz. 2GB of RAM, DVD R/W drive, 200GB drive, and extensive native networking support. A 1280 x 800 screen with millions of colours, all of it weighing around 1.4kg, and costs about 1/10th of the price.

That scale of advance is standard across the board for all fields of IT and T over that period. Technology always gets better. Over two decades it gets incomparably better. Your technical knowledge and experience might have been cutting edge in 1989 - though frankly I have my doubts - but now it's worthless as anything other than a historical circus sideshow.

[Affentitten]

Without wanting to give a blanket anthropological answer, the main hook is that you are eating the soul of an enemy warrior. He might have lost, but he was still brave enough to face you. You don't eat the organs of his womenfolk or children.

I should also add that it's kind of a zero sum game. I could go out now and rob a poor person of everythng they had. I wouldn't get much money off them, but I'd still have MORE money than when I started the exercise.

[Wilhammer]

OMFG. No wonder you are so far off the park with your pronouncements.

Technology has moved on quite a bit in the last two decades...

Moore's Law - I wonder if he knows that one.

"[faking images]I'm told it's much harder to do with an object in motion than in a single still."

And, why?

Well, moving film is a collection of stills, so you'd have to doctor each frame. Fuzzing it up helps.

[Stalin's Organist]

I wonder how far the Hunkies are really willing to go to support their pals in Tiblisi?


hunkies??

sounds like something you ask for when you have a bad cold so you can blow your nose on it......

[Stalin's Organist]

Looks liek the Wiki page on the war (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2008_South_Ossetia_war)is a pretty good summary of hte whole thing so far - it's pretty well documented - someone's been busy!!

[Affentitten]

hunkies??

sounds like something you ask for when you have a bad cold so you can blow your nose on it......

Only if you are afflicted with a grotesque Kiwi accent.

[Stalin's Organist]

Or afflicted with a seriously blocked nose you doofus! :p

BTW does this war finally break the "no democracies have ever declared war on each other" thingie?

[JonS]

have either of them declared war, or are they just waging it?

[Stalin's Organist]

The Georgian parliament approves a presidential decree declaring a "state of war".


From the BBC (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7551576.stm), 9 August

[Affentitten]

Or afflicted with a seriously blocked nose you doofus! :p

BTW does this war finally break the "no democracies have ever declared war on each other" thingie?

No, because the people that subscribe to that theory always have umpteen caveats to go with it. Like the democracy has to be more than five years old, has to be in a certian part of the world, has to have a certain type of constitution etc etc.

[Stalin's Organist]

So by no you mean yes :)

[Affentitten]

By no I mean no. Because the theory was blown away a long time before Russia v. Georgia.

A more important question now. What's with Georgia and beach volleyball? Australia has had to play Georgia in both mens and womens beach volleyball and the Georgian teams are just Brazilians. How does that come about?

[SSgt Viljuri]

According to Russia, they are not waging a war against Georgia, they are doing some peace keeping with live rounds.

And if current Russia is democratic, so were Mussolini's fascists state in Italy then.

Which democratic states have been at war with each other? Democracy is something more than just a word, for example, "People's democracy" is not necessarily a democracy, rather a one-party dictatorship. Even if these states favored the word "democratic". This can't be that hard, can it?

[Affentitten]

Which democratic states have been at war with each other? Democracy is something more than just a word, for example, "People's democracy" is not necessarily a democracy, rather a one-party dictatorship. Even if these states favored the word "democratic". This can't be that hard, can it?

Here is some discussion of examples, along with the pro and cons arguments for whether they are exceptions. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_possible_exceptions_to_the_democratic_peac e_theory#Modern

The problem I, and many others, have with democratic peace theory is that it is such an easy and glib thing to toss off: "democracies don't make wars on each other". But technically they do. Then the quibbling starts about what sort of democracies, how many people were killed, what the powers of the executive are.....

[John Kettler]

I've never concealed when my military aerospace career ended, so spare me the shocked expressions. Now that we've dealt with that, even though my knowledge base is somewhat dated, so is much of the hardware and equipment out there. In fact, most of the U.S. and threat systems I dealt with are still in service, and the "notional" threats (too hot to officially admit) are in service beside them, many being exportable.

The UAVs in 1989 are but the beginnings of what we have now, though the Pioneer was in limited service with the Navy, the BGM/MQM-74 drone series had been used for recon and aerial decoy work over Vietnam and was in test for aerial weapon delivery (Maverick), the Israelis had used TALDs (Tactical Air Launched Decoy) in smashing the Syrian defenses in the Bekaa Valley, and the Russians were flying the strategic drone Yastreb, and we'd done super secret brief work with D-21s over China, D-21s piggyback launched from SR-71s.

Yes, I know about Moore's Law, but do you know, without looking it up, Augustine's Law?
As for faking moving images, if you stop and think about it, it's not just the number of stills you have to alter, it's the ensuring that every single dynamic element is consistent and rings true across the sequence. The more elements in the scene and the more dynamic the situation, especially with everything in color, the more the workload goes through the roof.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Stalin's Organist]

Russia is considerably more democratic than Fascist Italy was - paranoia of its Finnish neighbours notwithstanding. Russia only represses its opposition by relatively indirect means (state control of media, dodgy criminal charges that usually contain at least an element of truth (which would also be the case for the same charges against Govt politicos of course) - Mussolini came to power by Coup d'etat, and took less than 2 years to declare an official one-party state.

To compare this to current Russia is just hyperbole.

whether you like it or not, Russia is not a one party state, and the last attempt at a coup failed.

[Abbott]

And if current Russia is democratic, so were Mussolini's fascists state in Italy then.

Which democratic states have been at war with each other? Democracy is something more than just a word, for example, "People's democracy" is not necessarily a democracy, rather a one-party dictatorship. Even if these states favored the word "democratic". This can't be that hard, can it?

Exactly. Trying to call Russia a democracy is way out there.

[Stalin's Organist]

Oh it's certainly not a great democracy....but it has universal adult sufferage - which is more than, say, the whole of "the west" had up 'til 100 years ago (depending on exactly which country you want to look at), and it's repression is not a lot worse than has been experienced in the US vs blacks, Japanese-Americans, and anyone the FBI didn't like in the 1950's and 60's in their "counter intelligence program (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/COINTELPRO)"

and it's still a lot better than Mussolini's Italy! :p

[Wilhammer]

I know Kettler's Law:

"Anything that can be explained with common sense and is observable is a lie."

[John Kettler]

Wilhammer,

Disproof of your proposed law requires but a single exception, right? Here goes.

You, Wilhammer are behaving toward me here in a boorish and obnoxious manner. This is readily observable, is explainable by common sense (have written at length on this in the past) and is demonstrably true. Q.E.D., you need to go rethink your alleged law!

Regards,

John Kettler

[JonS]

Ah, but Wilhammer has already RV'd that you'd say that.

He's got you there Kettler.

[Stalin's Organist]

So John K thinks that it is common sense for people to be obnoxious and boorish towards him.

Phew - never saw that one coming - my I must need another 15,000 RV sessions......

[SSgt Viljuri]

It is to be noted that any country worth living has two (2) elements in it: 1) Democratic system and 2) respect for "rule of law", or rather "checks and balances" in place, to protect individuals from the state's use of power, which among other things requires a functioning court system. Written laws are nice, but if they are not enforced and honored, there's no point of talking about "rule of law".

It is especially number two where the Russian system is lacking, not that their democratic side is situated on the top of any shining hill either, practically they are a one-party state, but with several power centers, the most important being people associated with the former KGB and the current structure of FSB/SVR. This includes people like Putin and Medvedev, both of them spent lots of time in Finland during the Yeltsin era, to point out the interesting tidbit here. Then there are industrialists/ogliarchs (some of which shares the western beliefs on democracy and market economy), traditional chauvinistic nationalists (they tend to stress the role of the Russian Orthodox Church) among some armed forces people and the members of the ROC. It is not a multi-party system, all of these elements work inside one party and one power structure.

[Wilhammer]

Kettler;

Your 'anti-proof' in the Lollipop Cocoa Puffs Universe is the proof of the Reality Based Universe; so my Quick Easy Dollar goes to my being correct!

Thanks.

[Michael Emrys]

According to Russia, they are not waging a war against Georgia, they are doing some peace keeping with live rounds.

LOL. I'm glad to see that irony is yet not dead in Russia.

Michael

[Affentitten]

In Soviet Union, irony kills YOU.

[Stalin's Organist]

so Viljuri sounds to me like you're saying it's pretty much the same as the USA interms of political "parties" then - just the rich fighting it out amongst themselves...

[John Kettler]

Stalin's Organist,

With such a fiendish ability to twist words beyond all recognition, you really should become a press officer! You know perfectly well what I said.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Stalin's Organist]

you know it's quite good that you can't go back and edit posts - but clearly JK has edited his memory and doesn't want to read his own posts - so here's what you said John -


You, Wilhammer are behaving toward me here in a boorish and obnoxious manner. This is readily observable, is explainable by common sense (have written at length on this in the past) and is demonstrably true.


What part of it did I twist?

the bit that "boorish and obnoxious manner" is " explainable by common sense" requires no great gramatical contortions for me to string together - I don't know the words for all the parts of the sentence, but that's what is says to me.

Perhaps you didn't quite say what you meant?

none-the-less you managed to tell what a lot of people think is the truth - me included.

changing that perception is largely in your own hands...has been for a long time...don't blame us if you fail to do so.

[John Kettler]

Stalin's Organist,

Wilhammer made certain claims in setting forth "Kettler's Law," and you can check those for yourself. I replied by stating a fact about his behavior, characterized said fact, as applied to him, as being readily observable, then said that the basis for his behavior was explainable using common sense. In this way, I systematically dismantled the underpinnings to his supposed law, one exception being sufficient.

You, though, have chosen to twist my words by deliberately broadening what I said to mean that behaving toward me in a boorish and obnoxious manner was common sense, which it obviously is not. In doing so, it stops just short of actively inciting people to go after me here. The meaning is clear to anyone not being deliberately obfuscatory and tendentious. Also, you've been around here long enough to have read one or more of my commentaries on Wilhammer's apparent motivations in behaving toward me as he does.

In case you're still even slightly confused, I expect people, particularly my critics, to treat me in the manner required by the Forum Rules we all agreed to abide by. I'll happily discuss issues, events, concepts, observed behavior and more, but I absolutely refuse to be anyone's whipping boy, target sleeve, or target butt here, and there's a big difference between the occasional good natured bon mot and the often vicious treatment some here have dished out to me time and again. I'm not going to put up with it if it happens again, and I can and will take appropriate action. This is a discussion forum, and my idea of discussion doesn't consist of letting one side outshout and intimidate the other into silence. Are we clear?

Regards,

John Kettler

[costard]

An observation: Russia seems to be the only party behaving rationally in this. Bush really does seem a second rate politician when compared to Putin, with far less moral and intellectual discipline.

What chance a more thoughtful set of Russian neighbours for a little while?

From what I've read, most cannibalism took place in geographic locations where there was limited access to digestable protein. What better way to celebrate a victory in battle than with a BBQ? Mmm, long pork.
Lets throw some more fuel on this fire....

[John Kettler]

costard,

The equivalent of this thread (p. 7) on the CMSF Forum has a real find: a Stratfor geo-strategic analysis of the war and related matters, complete with the best map I've yet seen of the area. Left some of my own commentary on the article there, too.

http://www.battlefront.com/community/showthread.php?t=82992&page=7

Regards,

John Kettler

[Abbott]

An observation: Russia seems to be the only party behaving rationally in this. Bush really does seem a second rate politician when compared to Putin, with far less moral and intellectual discipline.

Now that's so far off it's funny! You fit right in with Heckel and Jeckel from New Zealand here.

[SSgt Viljuri]

costard,

The equivalent of this thread (p. 7) on the CMSF Forum has a real find: a Stratfor geo-strategic analysis of the war and related matters, complete with the best map I've yet seen of the area. Left some of my own commentary on the article there, too.

http://www.battlefront.com/community/showthread.php?t=82992&page=7

Regards,

John Kettler

IMO: Doesn't look very intelligent, nor particularly knowledgeable at all.

Basically it's level looks to be a little short of newspaper editorial, with a somewhat fascist sounding apologist bent, all in all which doesn't really convey anything special or valuable for any reader with an IQ over 100 and capability to think critically.

It contains several grave factual errors that if it should be produced as a short essay or somefink, it would get an F grade from any self-respecting high school or college. I have seen better High School essays than this. Makes one to believe the writer is an academic fraud, or getting deranged lately, given he should know better from that background.

If his views/writings are somehow connected to ufology/conspiracy theories, I retract my comment, as I lack qualifications of the area (medicine, psychology).

[costard]

Thanks Abbott - I'm not sure H&J would care to agree.
I do think that we (Oz) should have offered Vlad a job having a go at running this country whilst sitting around waiting for his four years to pass; the guy seems to like the challenges of his profession - and is capable of rising to them. Unlike Junior.

Oh, and thanks John - I'll go take a squiz.

[Wilhammer]

Kettler, I hate to break the bad news to you, but your 'proof' is so full of holes, it is no proof at all.

All laws have exceptions.

Hell, if you did not ignore the Laws of Physics, then your pseudo-scientific believe system would not work.

RV, (and all of ESP) for example, violates the speed of light.

Your wording of your counter proof is horrid - it says 'It is common sense to refute what I (Kettler) say.'

The claim I am boorish and all that is not provable at all. That is an opinion, not a 'fact'.

[Wilhammer]

" Are we clear?"


Uhoh, here comes the threats. If you can't win the debate, shoot those who disagree with you.

So Stalinist...

BTW, Kettler, using 10 dollar words only gold plates the tinfoil.

[Wilhammer]

One more thing Kettler, on this new forum I was hoping for a new start, but it was YOU who started Trashing ME, so get off your high horse.

[Elmar Bijlsma]

Did you guys know there was an 'ignore' function on this forum?

[Wybert Takahashi]

Damn it. I ignored everyone, but "We can't help you ignore yourself."

[Redwolf]

You know, vBulletin also has an extension that is a "global ignore". The admins can put a person on everybody's ignore list without either side knowing. Should be fairly effective.

[Ivan Drago]

The counteroffensive will smash Russia.

Hey, when do we expect that counteroffensive to finally come through and 'smash Russia'?

I bet poor Pooty-Poo & Medvedev are hiding under their desk right now, holding each other tight, teeth clattering, shaking in fear of the inevitable retaliation from the mighty...oh wait, I forgot, the EU and the US are full of hot air and not much else.
Awww...too bad for Georgia.

The whole situation strikes me as funny. I've been expecting Russia to begin flexing it's muscles sooner or later, now that the US has as much military and political credibility as a junior high school bully who just got his nose smashed in by the little kid in the horn-rimmed glasses.

Maybe I'm just biased, as a Russian, but I don't see this whole thing as 'wrong' on the geo-political level (because there is no right or wrong on the geopolitical level, imo), even though the whole 'civilians dieing by the thousands' never looks quite right on the moral compass.
Why SHOULDN'T Russia try to expand as it becomes stronger? Isn't that what every country has been doing whenever it got half a chance since the beginning of civilization? Isn't that what the US has been doing, albeit more with an economical domination approach in recent times as opposed to military domination? Isn't that why we're at the top of the pile - because we ****ed over the blacks, the Native Americans, the South Americans, the Middle Easterners, the etc., etc.?
Plus one can argue that within those former Eastern Block nations, like Ukraine and Georgia, many are still divided on which side they want to ally themselves with - the West or the East. The reason they had been left-leaning so far is of course the fact that Russia didn't have much strenght of influence in the past two decades, allowing the US to install West-leaning politicians through 'elections' - how the times have changed.

Moreover I can't bring myself to care too much how it plays out, because in the end, we're all kind of ****ed when the resources start running out in a few decades. National boundries and flags won't mean much when there's no food or fresh water. A thermonuclear appocalypse almost seems like the preferred way to go out when you have mass starvation to look forward to.

[Redwolf]

There goes irony :)

[Wilhammer]

Did you guys know there was an 'ignore' function on this forum?

No I did not.

Kettler is on my list now.

[Ivan Drago]

IMO: Doesn't look very intelligent, nor particularly knowledgeable at all.

Basically it's level looks to be a little short of newspaper editorial, with a somewhat fascist sounding apologist bent, all in all which doesn't really convey anything special or valuable for any reader with an IQ over 100 and capability to think critically.

It contains several grave factual errors that if it should be produced as a short essay or somefink, it would get an F grade from any self-respecting high school or college. I have seen better High School essays than this. Makes one to believe the writer is an academic fraud, or getting deranged lately, given he should know better from that background.

If his views/writings are somehow connected to ufology/conspiracy theories, I retract my comment, as I lack qualifications of the area (medicine, psychology).


I'm assuming you are commenting on this article, originally posted by Kettler, and not on one of Kettler's own opinions/posts:
http://www.stratfor.com/weekly/russo_georgian_war_and_balance_power

If so, please do explain the factual errors present - I guess my IQ is inferior to yours (must be those superior Finnish genetics), since I found the article well written and seemingly accurate.

[Wilhammer]

That is quite a good article, if obvious to anyone, which is what SSGT seems to be saying. It also contains little specific 'fact' - it is editorial.

I'd like to know what Bush is thinking - if he is thinking.

Today we are told he has ordered C-17s to deliver aid to Georgia - aid that might be better, for the needs of Peace, to have been delivered by UPS, not the USAF.

He is poking the Bear - never a good idea.
Bush is dangerous - the sooner he gets out the better.

His complaints against the Russians ring so hollow - he is guilty of everything he pins on Putin and Friends.

We have all seen these scenarios in the past we read about, and the Balkan Wars of the 90s.

[Ivan Drago]

That is quite a good article, if obvious to anyone, which is what SSGT seems to be saying. It also contains little specific 'fact' - it is editorial.


I dunno, SSGT said it could be appreciated by only those of below average intelligence and would get an F as an essay, which to me sounds like he doesn't agree with it. That's fine, I'd just like to know why.


I'd like to know what Bush is thinking - if he is thinking.

Today we are told he has ordered C-17s to deliver aid to Georgia - aid that might be better, for the needs of Peace, to have been delivered by UPS, not the USAF.

He is poking the Bear - never a good idea.
Bush is dangerous - the sooner he gets out the better.

His complaints against the Russians ring so hollow - he is guilty of everything he pins on Putin and Friends.

We have all seen these scenarios in the past we read about, and the Balkan Wars of the 90s.

Well US humanitarian aid is OK - though Georgia's pres immediately said that the US was sending military aid, when in fact that seems not to be the case. I think Saakashvili is so terrified at the moment, with Russian armor within 40 miles of his capital, he will say anything publicly that will make it look like he isn't up **** creek without a paddle.

Russia wouldn't attack American aid workers obviously, but they can still continue the occupation of Georgia while saying there's a cease fire and in fact all operations have come to a halt - which is precisely what they've been doing ever since Sarkozy thought he'd solved the situation with the cease fire agreement on Monday (or was it Tuesday?).

Bush is of course the very reason this shift in power has occured. Rather ironic considering how conservatives thought they were actually making America's influence stronger by supporting him.

[SSgt Viljuri]

Heh, the difference is between proximate and ultimate causes. Most people above average intelligence are interested about the latter, because searching them can widen their understanding.

The proximate causes presented in the article, are based on obsolete views about power politics, and even if we would accept such views as our guiding principles, let's say for academic exercise, we should recognize that Russia's military is not even close of becoming a real threat or factor, apart from her aging nuclear deterrent, many observations about it on the popular media are grossly exaggerated and despite of the raw materials trading she has recently engaged herself into, Russian economy is not even close of becoming diversified, let alone self-sustainable, meaning that she would face almost an instant collapse and social turmoil without imports and other key services from the West. Russia needs the West more than vice versa. Only a salesman belonging to a military-industrial complex would try to imply otherwise. Or a tabloid press reporter. Russia has not developed infrastructure to either sell or buy enough to keep her economy going with Asia alone.

One cannot eat balance sheets or foreign financial investment. Aggression and propaganda is something that can quite easily turn against its sender.

The CSCE was not about committing the Soviet/Russian' Empire to eternal perpetuity, let alone rest of Europe's borders, it was about Human Rights. Ironically, the Soviet/KGB planners missed this CSCE's true meaning, and once again it's quite likely that such unforeseen happenstance is waiting Mr. Putin and tabloid press analysts, on all sides of the political spectrum.

Back to proximate causes: Serbia captured and extradited Mr. Karadzic, a war criminal, recently. Why did they do that? Especially if we were somehow to believe that the Russian Empire is back with a full throttle and vengeance?

[Abbott]

(snip) Maybe I'm just biased, as a Russian, but I don't see this whole thing as 'wrong' on the geo-political level



Is that just yours and Putin's point of view or do many of your fellow Russians feel the same way? (do you know)

I mean is the general Russian public opinion "feck Georgia"? If so is there a why other then everything's fair in politics?

Anyway it's good to hear an opinion from the other side, I hope you keep posting.

[Stalin's Organist]

Are we clear?



I am - you are apparently having memory and comprehension problems and so I can't vouch for the "we" bit.

[Ivan Drago]

Heh, the difference is between proximate and ultimate causes. Most people above average intelligence are interested about the latter, because searching them can widen their understanding.
[/COLOR]

Ah, in that case I can solve all further discussions on military politics for us by 'revealing' that the ultimate cause here is the same as always in matters of war - lust for power, of which no nation is not guilty of at some point in their history.
So what? It's human nature after all.

If I'm down and you're up, it's only natural for me to feel envious of your position and try to better my own, possibly by toppling you. Been going on forever, probably not going to stop until we're all either a) dead, or b) constantly stoned on LSD to the point where the most aggresive action we can muster is to gather in a circle and play drums.

Some nations, through their unique geography/culture/etc. will naturally be more able to express and act on this lust for power then others - like the United States and Russia today.


The proximate causes presented in the article, are based on obsolete views about power politics, and even if we would accept such views as our guiding principles, let's say for academic exercise, we should recognize that Russia's military is not even close of becoming a real threat or factor, apart from her aging nuclear deterrent, many observations about it on the popular media are grossly exaggerated and despite of the raw materials trading she has recently engaged herself into, Russian economy is not even close of becoming diversified, let alone self-sustainable, meaning that she would face almost an instant collapse and social turmoil without imports and other key services from the West. Russia needs the West more than vice versa. Only a salesman belonging to a military-industrial complex would try to imply otherwise. Or a tabloid press reporter. Russia has not developed infrastructure to either sell or buy enough to keep her economy going with Asia alone.
One cannot eat balance sheets or foreign financial investment. Aggression and propaganda is something that can quite easily turn against its sender.
[/COLOR]

Interesting. Please let me know which of the causes presented you view as obsolete views.

Now as for Russia's military. As well funded, trained and equipped as the United States? No, not yet ;)
Does it matter? Nope! For all it's capabilities, the US military is stretched thin and even had it not been, there is no way the American public would support a confrontation with Russia. Even with the most optimistic, pro-Western, anti-Russian lens, only a fool would expect such a confrontation to be easy for the United States. And Americans have no stomach for blood, unless the cause strikes very close to home.
Most Americans probably couldn't find Georgia on a map, much less care to die for it.

Your general opinions remind me with some amusement of how some of the editors of The Exile had commented on 'The Economist' magazine's constant criticism of Russia throughout the last few years. Basically along the same line 'Their economy ain't that great!' 'Sure they're getting stronger but not that strong!', 'Putin's a thug and murdering Chechnians!' etc.

Basically the Exile editors (Americans living in Russia, btw) mocked the Economist as really trying hard to play down Russia's resurgence all the while knowing that American influence, economy and military was doing the complete opposite due to the Iraq war. All the while Russia's economy kept improving, the military kicked the crap out of the remaining Chechnians and now - well, here's Tom with the weather :D

Of course, you MIGHT be right - only time will tell how this will play out, but I don't think Putin is dumb enough to sacrifice YEARS of work building up to this moment if he wasn't quite confident that the best the West could muster would be a limp-wristed whimper. Once again, we will see. Say what you want about Putin, but he ain't stupid.



Back to proximate causes: Serbia captured and extradited Mr. Karadzic, a war criminal, recently. Why did they do that? Especially if we were somehow to believe that the Russian Empire is back with a full throttle and vengeance?


While I don't have a comment on the Serbian war criminal, I do not think that the Russian Empire is back on full throttle - 1/3rd throttle perhaps, but certainly not full yet. These events do mark the stages of resurgence though, as this war would not have been possible a few years ago.

[Affentitten]

Basically the Exile editors (Americans living in Russia, btw) .

Not any more. They got shut down by Medvedev's Ministry of Truth.

[Wilhammer]

We have heard all this before....if Russia were to push too hard, they might get into real trouble. If they thought for a moment they could get completely away with it ala 56, 68, then Georgia would be completely crushed and no amount of US/Euro political influence would stop them, but they have stopped.

This goes well beyond military policy, as we all know, and Russia is mistaken if thy think their only source of being taken seriously is to practice war.

The article we are discussing does have one inherent huge factual error - it claims that The former Warsaw Pact was part of the Soviet Empire. It also slights the Baltic States, who the US never recognized as part of the Soviet Empire - a collection of States that were never part of the Russian Empire and should of been set free after WW2. We all know the history of those States. (By the way, I agree the article is on the viewpoint of days gone past and is alarmist at best.)

Now, I am not trying to be all gringo, but one should not think the US is without options, even military ones.

But these words below remind me of a certain cast of characters all throughout history - words that cause an awful lot of trouble post under estimation.

We would not support entering Russia, but we would support our new formerly Warsaw Pact allies, which the Russians dare not attack - they could not handle those States inherent forces with US aid backing them up.

I think the Russians know that.

================================================== =

Does it matter? Nope! For all it's capabilities, the US military is stretched thin and even had it not been, there is no way the American public would support a confrontation with Russia. Even with the most optimistic, pro-Western, anti-Russian lens, only a fool would expect such a confrontation to be easy for the United States. And Americans have no stomach for blood, unless the cause strikes very close to home.
Most Americans probably couldn't find Georgia on a map, much less care to die for it.

[Abbott]

Ah, in that case I can solve all further discussions on military politics for us by 'revealing' that the ultimate cause here is the same as always in matters of war - lust for power,

Now as for Russia's military. As well funded, trained and equipped as the United States?

While I don't have a comment on the Serbian war criminal, I do not think that the Russian Empire is back on full throttle - 1/3rd throttle perhaps, but certainly not full yet. These events do mark the stages of resurgence though, as this war would not have been possible a few years ago.

So there is no cause by Georgia? This is nothing more then an act of expansion? Is there anything to support this other then your opinion?

I see your profile says New York, are you in contact with folks in Russia (at the present time), what is their opinions of the war?

[Ivan Drago]

Is that just yours and Putin's point of view or do many of your fellow Russians feel the same way? (do you know)

I mean is the general Russian public opinion "feck Georgia"? If so is there a why other then everything's fair in politics?

Anyway it's good to hear an opinion from the other side, I hope you keep posting.

Not only my fellow Russians, but millions of Ukrainians, Belorussians and Georgians. It's not 'feck Georgia' though, since Russians have always loved visiting Georgia during the Soviet days as an exotic land. Georgians as an ethnic minority have also had a love/hate thing in the general Russian public, sort of like I guess American whites have for American blacks. They're 'different' and often 'cool', but don't let them too close to our girls ;)
There's definitely not the sort of animosity that Russians have for say, Chechnians, who are pretty much despised.

As for 'Why?'
Hmm, well, power on the state level translates into better living conditions and prosperity for the citizenry. Even the corrupt and inefficient system of the USSR was preferred by many to the chaotic poverty of the post-collapse Eastern Europe.
Of course, many Russians despise Putin and think (quite rightly, given the fact that he's still a politician after all, that most scum-sucking of all scum sucking professions) that given the chance he'll bankroll all his buddies and bail, with the country in ruin - and that might happen too. For now, he's still considered by the majority Russia's best bet for a prosperous and powerful future.

[Wilhammer]

It does seem that Georgia started this, but Russia was hoping it would.

As to crushing Chechens - small enclave - took a long, long time. I think a long time commitment in Georgia would of wrecked the Russians.

Russia might have blinked on this one. Defending SO was one thing; trying to take and cut off Tblisi was another.

As to Americans finding things on maps, I bet the Average New Yorker could not find Georgia, USA on a map :)

[Affentitten]

As to crushing Chechens - small enclave - took a long, long time.

Though the Chechens were solidly reinforced by Jihadists from all the usual sources. They marketed it well as a Muslim war. That wouldn't be the case in Georgia.

[Ivan Drago]

So there is no cause by Georgia? This is nothing more then an act of expansion? Is there anything to support this other then your opinion?

I see your profile says New York, are you in contact with folks in Russia (at the present time), what is their opinions of the war?

Well...not being a military analyst closely working with the Putin administration...I can only guess, same as everyone else.
It seems pretty obvious though - Russian funded South Ossetians seperatists provoked Georgia's military response at a time when Russia correctly estimated the US would not be able to offer much support.
Seems to be 'expansionist', or at least a reaction to the other America-Russia confrontations like those over Iran, Kosovo, the missile shield in Poland & Czech Republic, etc.

I live in San Francisco now actually, and even though I have family in Russia I doubt everyone's of the same opinion. A lot of people are rather pleased with Russia's actions, some are horrified.
Sort of like US-public's opinion on Iraq when it first started I suppose...

[MSBoxer]

So it seems that Russia arranged to have its vaunted military granted the role of 'peace keeper' in the two breakaway enclaves. They use this role to issue Russian passports to anyone who will take them so that they may claim that there are Russian citizens in danger. They also provide weapons which the rebels use to fire on targets outside of the enclave in Georgia. Russia builds up forces in the area while stoking the fires of rebellion then when Georgia has had enough and decides to assert control over territory that is still technically part of Georgia Russia cries foul, claims genocide, rushes in forces that just happen to be camped on the border and proceeds to not only liberate the disputed territories, but to continue on into Georgia proper to 'punish' the Georgians for having the nerve to attempt to defend themselves from attacks undertaken from their own soil.

Yep, sounds like the good old days are here again. Welcome to Cold War 2.0

[Abbott]

Well...not being a military analyst closely working with the Putin administration...I can only guess, same as everyone else.
It seems pretty obvious though - Russian funded South Ossetians seperatists provoked Georgia's military response at a time when Russia correctly estimated the US would not be able to offer much support.
Seems to be 'expansionist', or at least a reaction to the other America-Russia confrontations like those over Iran, Kosovo, the missile shield in Poland & Czech Republic, etc.

I live in San Francisco now actually, and even though I have family in Russia I doubt everyone's of the same opinion. A lot of people are rather pleased with Russia's actions, some are horrified.
Sort of like US-public's opinion on Iraq when it first started I suppose...

Thanks. (damn 10 character limit)

[Ivan Drago]

As to crushing Chechens - small enclave - took a long, long time. I think a long time commitment in Georgia would of wrecked the Russians.


Even the American military couldn't totally supress rebels in Iraq very quickly, though I hear the surge might be working for the moment - guerrilla wars take years to end.

If Russia decided to conquer Georgia it probably could, but I would definitely expect a partisan army to rise up. Russia knows this and thus probably won't involve itself to that degree.

[Wilhammer]

"Welcome to Cold War 2.0"

I could not agree more - this is the first incident of that new Cold War that marks it as inevitable.

[Ivan Drago]

"Welcome to Cold War 2.0"

I could not agree more - this is the first incident of that new Cold War that marks it as inevitable.

The REAL winner in all this is the Military Industrial Complex!
Gooooooo Horriblycorruptcorporationshappilysellingtoolsofde ath!! Yaaay! ;)

[Stalin's Organist]

It'll be particularly cold in Europe then, as gas supplies from the CIS become a weapon......


So it seems that Russia arranged to have its vaunted military granted the role of 'peace keeper' in the two breakaway enclaves. They use this role to issue Russian passports to anyone who will take them so that they may claim that there are Russian citizens in danger. They also provide weapons which the rebels use to fire on targets outside of the enclave in Georgia. Russia builds up forces in the area while stoking the fires of rebellion then when Georgia has had enough and decides to assert control over territory that is still technically part of Georgia Russia cries foul, claims genocide, rushes in forces that just happen to be camped on the border and proceeds to not only liberate the disputed territories, but to continue on into Georgia proper to 'punish' the Georgians for having the nerve to attempt to defend themselves from attacks undertaken from their own soil.


Maybe the back story is true - maybe not.

What is indisputable is that Georgia screwed up royally - either playing into the Russian long term plan, or playing into Russian convenience.

[MSBoxer]

I agree the sequence I posted may be a bit paranoid, but you know the old saying.....

If it is not true then I would like to know what if anything the 'peace keepers' did to stop the attacks from the rebels.

BTW - How the hell did I drop to 36 posts! Damn forum flush!

[Wilhammer]

The REAL winner in all this is the Military Industrial Complex!
Gooooooo Horriblycorruptcorporationshappilysellingtoolsofde ath!! Yaaay! ;)


Sadly, all too true.

[volfrahm]

Russia in the end can only lose, as all Georgia has to do is gain admission to NATO. Once this happens, no more Russian aggression on its neighbors. So, in the end, Russia won't even be considered a regional power. Isn't this going to be decided in December, the whole NATO new member thing?

So talk about the Cold War 2.0 is nonsensical if Georgia and Ukraine are accepted into NATO.

[JonS]

uh ... ISTR Cold War 1.0 trucked along just fine when there was a NATO and a Warsaw Pact. NATO isn't a new, post-Cold War 1.0, thing you know.

[Ivan Drago]

In light of shocking new video-evidence, I now blame everything (as always) ON THE JEWS!!!! AAARGRGRGRGRGRGR :mad: :mad:

http://www.wakeupfromyourslumber.com/node/7724

;)

[MSBoxer]

Hey, should I copyright "Cold War 2.0" before some schmuck beats me to it?

Sad that it is even happening, let alone that it needs a name :( Hoped we were past this phase in human/societal evolution

[Abbott]

Hey, should I copyright "Cold War 2.0" before some schmuck beats me to it?

Sad that it is even happening, let alone that it needs a name :( Hoped we were past this phase in human/societal evolution

You might as well, I think the Ukraine is the real Russian target, without it they will not be a superpower. The question is can Putin pull it off.

[Sitting Duck]

http://cnnwire.blogs.cnn.com/2008/08/13/russia-says-us-faces-choice-over-georgia/

...Russia pressed the United States on Wednesday to choose between “a real partnership” with Moscow or an “illusory” relationship with U.S. ally Georgia...Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said, “...a choice will have to be made some day between considerations of prestige related to an illusory project and a real partnership in matters which indeed require collective efforts.”How do you read this? It sounds to me like: if the US wants Russian help with the Iranian nuclear issue, the US should abandon Georgia.

[Stalin's Organist]

Russia in the end can only lose, as all Georgia has to do is gain admission to NATO.

Ah - it's so simple, I wonder why they didn't think about it before?!:cool:

Or perhaps NATO doesn't want Georgia, since they'd been warning them against precisely this kind of action for a couple of years now - why would you want to admit a loose cannon which you can't actually defend?

(winners) Old Europe: France and Germany, which are cautious about letting Georgia and Ukraine into Nato, will feel vindicated. They think that a country like Georgia with a border dispute should not yet be allowed in.

-from the Beeb "Winners and Losers" (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7557915.stm)

[Affentitten]

There was agreat gold medal judo match yesterday beyween a Russian and a Georgian. Talk about a grudge match.

Georgia won.

[Abbott]

There was agreat gold medal judo match yesterday beyween a Russian and a Georgian. Talk about a grudge match.

Georgia won.

I bet that would have been a good fight to see!

[Affentitten]

Actually I think judo seems to be about the most boring and sedate fighting sport there is. Just lots of shirt grabbing with the occasional sight of people falling on top of each other. Maybe I'm just not initiated into the technicalities of it.

[John Kettler]

I, also, would like to know why the Stratfor piece is being so heavily criticized? Compared to even CNN's coverage, it's still in the stratosphere; more like Low Earth Orbit for the typical coverage given. I found it well written, straightforward, and clear. As I noted in my own comment, though, I think Friedman left out a potentially very important alternative explanation to the observables. Sad to say, governments throw people, regions and nations under the bus all the time when expediency and Real Politik rear their ugly heads, so it has, I think, to be seriously examined as a scenario on this mess, a mess I fully expect to have cascading effects which likely won't be good for Russia's neighbors.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Abbott]

Actually I think judo seems to be about the most boring and sedate fighting sport there is. Just lots of shirt grabbing with the occasional sight of people falling on top of each other. Maybe I'm just not initiated into the technicalities of it.

The knees are king!

[Abbott]

I fully expect to have cascading effects which likely won't be good for Russia's neighbors.


That just may be the real story right there.

[Wilhammer]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr1-O-P0R28

[Abbott]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Rr1-O-P0R28

Thanks will, watching it now.

[Wilhammer]

That just may be the real story right there.

Or, it could be as the Russian people have become more affluent in a long term 'peace' with the West, they might not like the direction this is headed, and the Gov't may suffer its ouster.

No doubt the neighbors are concerned about their freedom, but even the Bear can't take out the Ukraine, and they certainly cannot expect this do more than enhance the resolve of the prior WP nations.

Russia's 'Us or Them' conversation with the US is not going to go well for Russia, I think. Condi is in her element here, and she can go toe to toe with the 'Ruskies in Diplomatic Combat'.

[Abbott]

Or, it could be as the Russian people have become more affluent in a long term 'peace' with the West, they might not like the direction this is headed, and the Gov't may suffer its ouster.

No doubt the neighbors are concerned about their freedom, but even the Bear can't take out the Ukraine, and they certainly cannot expect this do more than enhance the resolve of the prior WP nations.

Russia's 'Us or Them' conversation with the US is not going to go well for Russia, I think. Condi is in her element here, and she can go toe to toe with the 'Ruskies in Diplomatic Combat'.

Yeah, the Ukraine would be a tough nut to crack. I don't expect an attack or anything like that at the present time but it may be the ultimate far reaching goal. I was pleased when I heard the news that Rice was being sent...also the first C-17 has already landed and some navel assets are also heading that way.

[Wilhammer]

Yeah, the Ukraine would be a tough nut to crack. I don't expect an attack or anything like that at the present time but it may be the ultimate far reaching goal.

Yes, and I do agree it is one ultimate goal, to scare them into 'obedience', but will it work?

The people of the Ukraine might not like that. Protests could happen if they felt anything real come of it, and depending on how widespread and reported they are, a political threat to Moscow.


I am reminded of the 56 Suez crisis - Britain's last Imperial gasp - and a gross miscalculation, though certainly the folly of 56 was realized much faster.

[Wilhammer]

Listening to a lot of strong talk on the Right wing talk shows .A Caller said the US should put a couple of Carrier Groups in the Black sea to intimadate the Russians.Now I know this would never happen but if the turks gave us clearance how long could Us carrier groups last in the black see if the Russian tried to take them out ?

Boy, might as well send a division of troops into the area.

Sending a carrier group there, militarily, would not be too different than dealing with being in the Persian Gulf - we would have to be willing to shoot Russian stuff down and destroy any threatening systems and bases - Gulf of Tonkin, WW3 style.

How long would it last, the Carrier Group? I bet it could hold out quite well, but with casualties.

One can be certain we WON'T go there.

[Ivan Drago]

There was agreat gold medal judo match yesterday beyween a Russian and a Georgian. Talk about a grudge match.

Georgia won.

I agree Judo doesn't seem to be very interesting - no punching or kicking? wtf?

I'd like to see the victor take on this rowdy little fellow:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XwVYtFBRtrE

;)

Fedor is the true beast from the east, though actually born in Ukraine he identifies himself as Russian. Doubt we'll see MMA in the Olympics any time soon though...

[Abbott]

I agree Judo doesn't seem to be very interesting - no punching or kicking? wtf?



Yeah, Olympic judo isn't judo.

[Stalin's Organist]

How long would it last, the Carrier Group? I bet it could hold out quite well, but with casualties.

One can be certain we WON'T go there.

Carriers are specifially not allowed through the Dardanelles/Bosphorus by the 1936 treaty that governs the straights.

[JonS]

http://www.turkishpilots.org.tr/ingilizcedernek/DOCUMENTS/montro.html

[Dogface]

Yeah, Olympic judo isn't judo.

Yes it is. What would make it not Judo?

[Affentitten]

Yeah, the Ukraine would be a tough nut to crack.

Ukraine is weak. It is feeble.

I was pleased when I heard the news that Rice was being sent...

Well with her background at least she might have a clue about Russia. Quite different to her dilettantism in the Middle East.

[Abbott]

Ukraine is weak. It is feeble.


Look wider. The Ukraine being bordered by several NATO countries would enable a military presence as a deterrent.

[Abbott]

Yes it is. What would make it not Judo?

Heh, pain.

[Dogface]

The sport of Judo is not about pain. It is about mastering the techniques and to use said techniques to throw one's opponent to the ground, immobilize or otherwise subdue one's opponent with a grappling maneuver, or force an opponent to submit by joint locking the elbow or by applying a choke.

[John Kettler]

In no particular order...

If the Beeb says both Washington and London "counseled" Georgia not to move, I'm inclined to believe that statement, but I will do some checking of my own. If true, it merely means that Friedman wasn't thorough in his Stratfor article listing of possible reasons why things happened the way they did, rather than missing something major.

In other news, we're getting wildly varying reports about where the Russian forces are appearing, despite the cease fire. From what I've seen on the Net, not only was Poti lightly bombed (one report claimed every vessel there was sunk), but locals are reporting Russian ground forces in the area, this one of several such sightings in places the Russians say they're not. Predictably, they're officially denied.

A friend who caught the international news (suspect CNN) reports their tanks are moving around an awful lot, considering hostilities have supposedly ceased. For my money, it looks like the rock soup method of occupying territory, with the diplomatic action providing the perfect media distraction. Besides, it's more fun to negotiate that way!

As for judo, they don't call it a martial art for nothing. It was originally designed so an unarmed samurai, in armor, could disable or kill a fully armed foe in short, vicious hand-to-hand combat. Recommend anyone interested watch the Human Weapon judo segment on YouTube. Brutal! It's on the same page as the Georgia-Russia judo match link given earlier.

Regards,

John Kettler

[von Lucke]

There was agreat gold medal judo match yesterday beyween a Russian and a Georgian. Talk about a grudge match.

Georgia won.

Not familiar with the 1956 Olympics water polo match between Hungary and USSR?

http://media.smithsonianmag.com/images/water_polo_aug08_main_thumb.jpg

Blood in The Water (http://www.smithsonianmag.com/people-places/blood-in-the-water.html)

The Olympics has always been analogous to war --- it's just more obvious at times.


Or perhaps NATO doesn't want Georgia, since they'd been warning them against precisely this kind of action for a couple of years now - why would you want to admit a loose cannon which you can't actually defend?
[/URL]

Yes, why would an organization formed for the specific purpose of uniting in common defense against an emergent USSR, want to admit a member they might have to defend against an emergent Russia? Boggles the mind, it does!

[Abbott]

The sport of Judo is not about pain. It is about mastering the techniques and to use said techniques to throw one's opponent to the ground, immobilize or otherwise subdue one's opponent with a grappling maneuver, or force an opponent to submit by joint locking the elbow or by applying a choke.

Yeah, submission wrestling, as was said earlier, it's pretty boring.

[Dogface]

Um no John, Judo was developed by Kano Jigoro in the late 1880s to early 1900s well after the Samurai left the scene. I think you are mistaking it for Jujutsu.

[SSgt Viljuri]

Does anybody know any credible Ukrainian sources about recent events and their significance on the World Peace? ;):D

[Abbott]

If the Beeb says both Washington and London "counseled" Georgia not to move,

I viewed the Georgian President on CNN a few minutes ago, he looked scared.

[costard]

Terrified, in fact. And the footage of him diving for cover when the planes went overhead is instructive as to his character too.

I see BP has closed off its pipeline in the region (BBC 13/8/08) - this is possibly a continuation of the scrap between it and the Russia.

I can't see anyone maintaining supply into Georgia, except the Russians. And I can't see the US having any success at all with the Iran mess if they get Russia offside. It looks like the neo-cons have overplayed their hand (again, what a surprise) - support for a inept regime in return for a share of the oil wealth, fantasies and promises of the US riding to the rescue prompting a particularly stupid course of action on the part of the Georgians.

I don't know if I have this correct - Stalin shipped a large part of the Ossetian populace to Siberia in return for their support of the Nazis in WWII, the replacement populace being mostly ethnic Russians. With their return, a recipe for conflict and the provision of the justification (for the Russians) to move in with the military?

[costard]

Terrified, in fact. And the footage of him diving for cover when the planes went overhead is instructive as to his character too.

I see BP has closed off its pipeline in the region (BBC 13/8/08) - this is possibly a continuation of the scrap between it and the Russia.:confused:

I can't see anyone maintaining supply into Georgia, except the Russians. And I can't see the US having any success at all with the Iran mess if they get Russia offside. It looks like the neo-cons have overplayed their hand (again, what a surprise) - support for a inept regime in return for a share of the oil wealth, fantasies and promises of the US riding to the rescue prompting a particularly stupid course of action on the part of the Georgians.

I don't know if I have this correct - Stalin shipped a large part of the Ossetian populace to Siberia in return for their support of the Nazis in WWII, the replacement populace being mostly ethnic Russians. With their return, a recipe for conflict and the provision of the justification (for the Russians) to move in with the military?

[John Kettler]

Dogface,

Nyet! Kano Jigoro developed judo after first intensively studying jujutsu. I quote this Wiki.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Judo

"Founder pursues jujutsu

Kano was a small, frail boy, who, even in his twenties, did not weigh more than a hundred pounds (45 kg), and was often picked on by bullies. He first started pursuing jujutsu, at that time a dying art[4], at the age of 17, but met with little success. This was in part due to difficulties finding a teacher who would take him on as a student. When he went to university to study literature at the age of 18, he continued his martial arts studies, eventually gaining a referral to Fukuda Hachinosuke (c.1828–c.1880), a master of the Tenjin Shin'yō-ryū and grandfather of Keiko Fukuda (born 1913), who is Kano's only surviving student, and the highest-ranking female jūdōka in the world. Fukuda Hachinosuke is said to have emphasized technique over formal exercise, sowing the seeds of Kano's emphasis of free practice (randori) in judo."

Resuming the narrative

"Full of new ideas, Kano had in mind a major reformation of jujutsu, with techniques based on sound scientific principles, and with focus on development of the body, mind and character of young men in addition to development of martial prowess. At the age of 22, when he was just about to finish his degree at the University, Kano took nine students from Iikubo's school to study jujutsu under him at the Eisho-ji, a Buddhist temple in Kamakura, and Iikubo came to the temple three days a week to help teach. Although two years would pass before the temple would be called by the name "Kodokan", or "place for teaching the way", and Kano had not yet been accorded the title of "master" in the Kitō-ryū, this is now regarded as the Kodokan's founding.

Judo[5] was originally known as Kano Jiu-Jitsu or Kano Jiu-Do, and later as Kodokan Jiu-Do or simply Jiu-Do or Judo. In the early days, it was also still referred to generically simply as Jiu-Jitsu.[6]"

Here's how Wiki defines the origin of the very jujutsu Kano Jigoro worked so hard to master.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jujutsu

"Today, the systems of unarmed combat that were developed and practiced during the Muromachi period (1333–1573) are referred to collectively as Japanese old-style jujutsu (日本古流柔術, Nihon koryū jūjutsu?). At this period in history, the systems practiced were not systems of unarmed combat, but rather means for an unarmed or lightly armed warrior to fight a heavily armed and armored enemy on the battlefield. In battle, it was often possible for a samurai to be unable to use his long sword, for various reasons, and be forced to rely on his short sword, dagger, or bare hands. When fully armored, the effective use of such "minor" weapons necessitated the employment of grappling skills.

Methods of combat (as just mentioned above) included striking (kicking and punching), throwing (body throws, joint-lock throws, unbalance throws), restraining (pinning, strangulating, grappling, wrestling) and weaponry. Defensive tactics included blocking, evading, off-balancing, blending and escaping. Minor weapons such as the tanto (dagger), ryufundo kusari (weighted chain), kabuto wari (helmet smasher), and kakushi buki (secret or disguised weapons) were almost always included in Sengoku jujutsu."

Thus, judo is a reformulation, revitalization and gentling of an ancient and often deadly
system of unarmed combat for the warrior, on the battlefield.

Regards,

John Kettler

[John Kettler]

It seems things are not the best in the modern Russian Army. The hazings during the Cold War were routine, appalling and well covered by the likes of both Suvorov (INSIDE THE SOVIET ARMY) and Cockburn (THE THREAT: Inside the Soviet Military Machine), to name but two, but this is in leagues that would make Kafka squirm. Not for the squeamish!

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/6356707.stm

http://thelede.blogs.nytimes.com/2007/02/13/russian-soldiers-sold-for-sex/

No idea how this plugs into the calculation for Correlation of Forces, but it's certainly significant.

Regards,

John Kettler

P.S.

Elmar Bijlsma,

Sure hope you're right about BFC's coolness.

[Affentitten]

Not familiar with the 1956 Olympics water polo match between Hungary and USSR?



Yes, I'm quite familiar with it, thanks. I was thinking about it when I made the post.

[Dogface]

Exactly John, Judo was not "originally designed so an unarmed samurai, in armor, could disable or kill a fully armed foe in short, vicious hand-to-hand combat." It was designed by Kano Jigoro so he could beat Fukushima Kanekichi who was a Jujutsu senior student. See that is the problem with some of your research, you seem to like to twist a definition to meet what you think is the truth. Judo is a Gendai budō meaning a modern Martial Art from Japan. Modern in this case being after the late 1860s.

[John Kettler]

Dogface,

I see the problem now. I therefore amend it to read: "The martial art from which judo is derived, and in which the founder of judo trained rigorously before developing judo, was deliberately designed...." Wasn't trying to twist anything.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Sneaksie]

So much for 'no politics' forum...
Anyway, http://www.nebog.com/truthaboutwar.htm

[Belaja smert]

So much for 'no politics' forum...
Anyway, http://www.nebog.com/truthaboutwar.htm

If you are making a joke posting this, well and good. Although I'm afraid you believe all that horsesh*t.

[John Kettler]

Belaja smert and Sneaksie,

I think we're doing a fairly decent job of all source analysis. As long as everyone keeps one foot on the floor (a rule in pool) and remembers to exhale, we should be okay.

Regards,

John Kettler

[Ivan Drago]

That's the beauty in these geo-political games - you can make it look almost believable, have just enough facts behind you to have some people go 'hmmm...' and that's sometimes enough to divide opinion and prevent unification of the enemy.

The Western Europeans are incidently much less critical of the Russians on this whole thing then the United States and the former Soviet vassal states.

It's interesting to see one thing the Russians probably knew would be a possible consequence played out against them:
Poland just signed the deal to build the missile shield on it's turf

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/northamerica/usa/2559818/Poland-and-US-agree-deal-for-missle-defence-shield.html

"We feel at the moment a greater concern for our safety," said Bogdan Klich, the Polish defence minister, evoking fears of a resurgent Russia, widespread in the former Eastern Bloc. "That's why every installation of the Western world on the Polish territory has its meaning, because it anchors Poland more deeply to the West."

- Isn't that what the Georgians though? ;)

[BigDukeSixField]

Hi guys, it's me, I forgot my old login so I had to create this one.

I've been in Georgia since the beginning but only now got enough time to drop a line here.

Haven't read the thread but I've been to Gori several times and chatted with the Russian army, so if there are questions out there glad to throw in my two tetri. (100 make a Lari)

[akd]

I'm most interested in what led to the Georgian retreat/withdrawal from Gori? Breakdown of C&C? Effort to avoid confrontations with Russians or stay out of Russian arty range? Part of a defense plan?

[BigDukeSixField]

Bigduke6, any comments or are you too busy at the moment? :mad:;)

Not to claim that there's anything funny about this.

Column two, I was too busy.

Apropos the US service personnel, there has been a persistant report that one of the soldiers killed in Tskhinvali was an African-American looking man in light-tan combat boots, light tan t-shirt, camoflage fatigues, excellent physical condition. The Russian accusation is that he was a Green Beret. Can't prove that, but I definately talked to a Russian tank crew that swore up and down they saw the corpse.

So it's good the official US service personnel in Georgia are ok. I guess this dude was some one else. One thing for sure, there are not too many African-extraction Georgians.

[Hakko Ichiu]

Column two, I was too busy.

Apropos the US service personnel, there has been a persistant report that one of the soldiers killed in Tskhinvali was an African-American looking man in light-tan combat boots, light tan t-shirt, camoflage fatigues, excellent physical condition. The Russian accusation is that he was a Green Beret. Can't prove that, but I definately talked to a Russian tank crew that swore up and down they saw the corpse.

So it's good the official US service personnel in Georgia are ok. I guess this dude was some one else. One thing for sure, there are not too many African-extraction Georgians.


From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_diaspora#Russia):


While there may have been black people in Russia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Russia) early on[37] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_diaspora#cite_note-36) the first blacks in Russia was the result of slave trade by the Ottoman empire (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ottoman_empire)[38] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_diaspora#cite_note-autogenerated1-37) and their descendants still live on the coasts of the Black Sea (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_Sea). Czar (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Czar) Peter the Great (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Peter_the_Great) was recommended by his friend Lefort to bring in Africans to Russia for hard labor. Alexander Pushkin (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexander_Pushkin) was the descendant of the African slave Abram Petrovich Gannibal (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Abram_Petrovich_Gannibal), who became Peter's protege, was educated as a military engineer (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Military_engineer) in France, and eventually became general-en-chef, responsible for the building of sea forts and canals (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Canal) in Russia.[39] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_diaspora#cite_note-38)[40] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_diaspora#cite_note-39)
During the 1930s fifteen Black American (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Black_American) families moved to the Soviet Union (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union) as agricultural experts.[41] (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/African_diaspora#cite_note-40)As African states became independent (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Decolonisation) in the 1960s, the Soviet Union (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Soviet_Union) offered them the chance to study in Russia; over 40 years, 400,000 African students came, and many settled there. [emphasis added]

You never know...

[Ivan Drago]

I've been in Georgia since the beginning but only now got enough time to drop a line here.

Haven't read the thread but I've been to Gori several times and chatted with the Russian army, so if there are questions out there glad to throw in my two tetri. (100 make a Lari)

Any interesting anecdotes from the Russian troops besides the alleged dead black Green Beret?
Do they have strong opinions about being in Georgia? From the photos we see at least in the media they appear to be in good spirits/morale.

[SSgt Viljuri]

In the Second Chechen war, there was a rumor about a whole unit of female(!) Estonian volunteers fighting against the Federation.

Obviously, imagination runs wildly whenever fighting breaks out, stress and anxiety being present in the troops involved, but those factors are only a partial explanation, I think. :D

[easy-v]

Big Duke-

I read a comment about "baltic mercenaries" being used by the Georgians...any word on that?

Aside from that, it would be interesting getting a post with any rumors, fables or urban legend stuff going around, just to get a feel for how things are going over there

[BigDukeSixField]

Well, the Russian troops are definately looting, but it appears to be the organized as ordered kind rather than the impromptu drunk Ivan kind. I just saw Georgian TV show a column of Ural trucks, they were hauling those cool US Special Forces motor boat on trailers out of the Georgian port Poti. US military aid now in Russian hands, basically.

And here's something really funny, the Russian soldiers just are thrilled with NATO personal gear. When the Georgians ran they forgot to empty out their depots, so now just about every Russian has some NATO issue souvenier. The most popular item is this little black commando knife, sometimes with a leg holster which gives you an idea of the kind of stuff the Georgian military was buying. But I've seen rucks, goggles, web gear, utility belts, med kits, flares, helmets, kevlar vests, sleeping pads, sunglasses - the Russians really made out like bandits. I saw one BTR piled with about 6 or 7 NATO standard backpacks, and each one had its sleeping pad rolled up on top just like they make you do it in basic training. Guess the Russians found a barracks or two.

All in all the Russians seem to be in a great mood, but mostly I talked with guys from a Mech unit normally based in Chechnya, 17th Motor Rifle I'm pretty sure. Guys in their early to mid 20s with a tour under their belts, the NCOs especially were really friendly. The officers less so but then they're officers. The commander is a big guy named Viacheslav Borisov, he has a huge gut and a voice and is just like a Russian general from central casting. The other unit I saw there was the peacekeeper infantry that had been in Tsvikhali when the Georgians bomarded it, those guys looked tougher and were less friendly. There were some paratroopers mixed in, I'm not sure exactly how that worked. Also the peacekeepers seemed to be a wider ethnic mix, more Asians. Although the infantry from the 17th Mech had a good share of Oriental-looking guys too.

All in all they looked pretty tough, they weren't doing anything stupid with their weapons and orders got executed fast and pretty efficiently from what I could see. But their appearance was sloppy as all get out, it would have given a Western sgt major or first sergeant a fit. Pretty much no uniform, wear what you please. But it didn't seem to bother the Russians.

[SSgt Viljuri]

(snips) All in all they looked pretty tough, they weren't doing anything stupid with their weapons and orders got executed fast and pretty efficiently from what I could see. But their appearance was sloppy as all get out, it would have given a Western sgt major or first sergeant a fit. Pretty much no uniform, wear what you please. But it didn't seem to bother the Russians.

Like these? One of those soldiers looks to be wearing Finnish camo (model 2005), "dressed up to kill", I recon? :D

http://img99.imageshack.us/img99/2833/610xbo9.jpg

[Ivan Drago]

All in all they looked pretty tough, they weren't doing anything stupid with their weapons and orders got executed fast and pretty efficiently from what I could see. But their appearance was sloppy as all get out, it would have given a Western sgt major or first sergeant a fit. Pretty much no uniform, wear what you please. But it didn't seem to bother the Russians.

Very interesting commentary Big Duke, thanks! May I ask on what basis you find yourself in Georgia observing this conflict?


So far my favorite part of this whole mess is seeing all the talking heads here in the States like Lou Dobbs and Bill O'Reilly look all puffed up and constipated about Russian military aggresion and 'adventurism' (love that one!), yelling about how we must step in and put them in their place while all the commentators and experts they talk to say 'Um, sorry, we're kinda castrated right now - may we suggest bending over and using some K-Y-Jelly instead?'
Oh, it must be a tough thing for the neocon to absorb...

[Abbott]

Oh, it must be a tough thing for the neocon to absorb...



I doubt it, this may work against Putin and Russia.

[Dogface]

Now call me crazy, but has any one else noticed that Google maps and Google Earth do not show the road map in Georgia anymore?
I swear that when I was trolling Google Earth 3 weeks ago and then again when the crap hit the fan, I was able to see the road map linking the cities and such.

[John Kettler]

BigDukeSixField,

Glad you're in one piece, and thanks for the firsthand report. There's a similar thread on the CMSF Forum, and I just recently posted a number of things pertinent to the issue of possible American, Israelis and mercenaries being involved in action in South Ossetia. There is an explicit reference in one of the items to a "black African-American" who was killed.


Regards,

John Kettler

[BigDukeSixField]

One of you guys asked why the Georgian army folded so fast, here's my opinion.

1. The Georgians had an army configured for little wars and border issues (infantry+artillery, basically) and they weren't set up to deal with combined arms. Their anti-armor ability is weak, basically RPGs. No air force, more or less effective ADA but limited coverage, it could only point north so the Russians flew in air strikes from Azerbaijan and Dagestan.

2. Russians are tougher. The ground troops the Russians have brought to this fight from the north are basically a motor rifle division out of Chechnya, and a regiment of "peacekeepers" that was based in Tskhinvali, which by recruitment and training are on a level of Russian paratroopers. So these guys are professional soldiers, they know their weapons and tactics. I would say roughly comparable to US combat units in Iraq, although probably not quite up to the level of 82nd Airborne or the Rangers, but in any case nowhere near recruits.

The Georgian army is about 1/4 guys that went through the equivalent of US basic training, and 3/4 standard Soviet mass formations. There was of course a brigade of excellent Georgians in Iraq, but that really didn't impede the Russians much.

3. The Georgians assumed with their attack that they could do two things at the outset of the war, first close the road tunnel through the mountains back to Russia with an air strike, and second with about 80 or so heavy artillery and rocket launchers they could grab south Ossetia fast by killing all the Russian peacekeepers by bombardment, and then keeping out Russian reinforcements by closing the tunnel. In fact the Georgian air strike on the tunnel mouth got shot down, and the Russian infantry did not melt away under bombardment like the Georgians planned.

4. Georgia assumed that if you bombard Russian infantry, the Russians will not retaliate against your country directly. The Russians have been landing troops on the Black Sea shore and the Georgians, at the beginning, have nothing to stop them.

All that put together meant that after about two days of fighting the Georgians knew the handwriting was on the wall, and their morale went to pieces. The road to Tblisi from Gori was strewn with abandoned APCs and artillery etc., it was pretty shameful for an army supposedly trained by the Americans.

[BigDukeSixField]

Re/ sloppy uniforms, if some one will host the pix I'll send you guys some shots of the Russians, that pic is much neater than what I saw.

[von Lucke]

Re/ sloppy uniforms, if some one will host the pix I'll send you guys some shots of the Russians, that pic is much neater than what I saw.

What's that old saying? No combat ready unit ever passed inspection? Even in the US Army, what goes in the field would never be permitted in garrison.

I doubt it, this may work against Putin and Russia.

Like how? Condie's "If Russia doesn't stand down, we will take appropriate action" is the emptiest of threats. Define "appropriate action"? Kick them out of the G8? Haw! Exclude them from negotiations with Iran / North Korea? Never happen.

Ya know, this is just the sort of opportunity Putin has been looking for to show that the US is all talk and no action. That Russia still controls it's borders. I think he's proven his point.

[SSgt Viljuri]

Chit-chat aside, this article offers some of those ultimate causes mentioned earlier: Why is Vladimir Putin so scared of Georgia? / Daily Telegraph (http://www.telegraph.co.uk/opinion/main.jhtml?xml=/opinion/2008/08/15/do1501.xml)

[costard]

G'day BD6Field. Good to have you here - and there.

I was wondering if any parallel could be drawn with Yugoslavia - a major power took unilateral action against a neighbouring aggressor, the whole fight over in two days: but the people haven't come out.
It would seem to me that the president must go - this is the biggest cockup he's likely to be allowed to make and keep his life. And even then...

I'm sorry - who was it bemoaning the evident lack of social development of the human race? Mate, the goal of competent governance is the curbing of the worst excesses, the challenge is having the society grow under you.

[BigDukeSixField]

Saakashvili has 4 or 5 years left to run on his term and his party controls the legislature, so impeachment isn't in the cards short term. Maybe if the economy goes to heck in a handbasket the opposition might gain some steam, but it's really looking the US is going to turn on the aid hose full pressure, and the Europeans are going to help. I bet one year from now the Georgian army will be better equipped than right before the Russians started carrying off the Georgians' stuff. (I just saw a report the Russians are going to try and raise a couple of old US coast guard cutters previously owned by the Georgians, now to be new elements of the Black Sea fleet.)

[Boris London]

Saakashvili has 4 or 5 years left to run on his term and his party controls the legislature, so impeachment isn't in the cards short term. Maybe if the economy goes to heck in a handbasket the opposition might gain some steam, but it's really looking the US is going to turn on the aid hose full pressure, and the Europeans are going to help. I bet one year from now the Georgian army will be better equipped than right before the Russians started carrying off the Georgians' stuff. (I just saw a report the Russians are going to try and raise a couple of old US coast guard cutters previously owned by the Georgians, now to be new elements of the Black Sea fleet.)

check your PM

Boris
London

[John Kettler]

SSGt Viljuri,

What I could see of the article looked very good, but the site solidly locked up my browser twice running, much to my frustration.

BigDukeSixField,

A most interesting dissection of the respective forces. I was intrigued to note what was and wasn't brought in. For example, BMP-2s, rather than BMP-3s, and in another clash, the VDV was operating BMD-1s, instead of BMD-2,3, or 4. To me this suggests the fighting was done by Category B units. This, of course, presumes the Russians kept the old readiness ratings.

By "road tunnel," I presume you mean the Roki Tunnel? If not, what did you mean? If Saakashvili truly thought he could blast Russian troops with impunity and get away with doing so, then he understood nothing of the Russian mentality, to the point where my mind reels at his cluelessness. As it was, he was already up against the well established Russian viewpoint that "if we conquered it and spilled Russian blood in doing so, it's ours forever." A point the other liberated regions would do well to remember.

Regards,

John Kettler

[SSgt Viljuri]

Saakashvili has 4 or 5 years left to run on his term and his party controls the legislature, so impeachment isn't in the cards short term. Maybe if the economy goes to heck in a handbasket the opposition might gain some steam, but it's really looking the US is going to turn on the aid hose full pressure, and the Europeans are going to help. I bet one year from now the Georgian army will be better equipped than right before the Russians started carrying off the Georgians' stuff. (I just saw a report the Russians are going to try and raise a couple of old US coast guard cutters previously owned by the Georgians, now to be new elements of the Black Sea fleet.)

I think the Georgians and NATO should ask Finnish official/private consultancy how to set up a good conscription based force for territorial defense. As we have found out, counterinsurgency forces are nice, but not nearly enough to deter the Bear from violating anyone's territorial integrity.

Or maybe it is already happening through Estonia/Poland, I don't know, but main point is that even if any planning should be done according to the NATO standards and procedures, there are many very important things that the US/NATO way of doing things would not normally address, for a small country in the proximity of the Bear. Anyways, clearly the Georgian force structure and cohesion was not acceptable, and their performance dismal, and it could not be helped with some delivery of additional Javelins alone.

[SSgt Viljuri]

(snips) A most interesting dissection of the respective forces. I was intrigued to note what was and wasn't brought in. For example, BMP-2s, rather than BMP-3s, and in another clash, the VDV was operating BMD-1s, instead of BMD-2,3, or 4. To me this suggests the fighting was done by Category B units. This, of course, presumes the Russians kept the old readiness ratings.

Absolutely not. Forces assigned were fully/mostly professional parts of the Russian military, most with tours of duty already behind them, so no conscripts at all. Units like the 76th Airborne (Pskov).

"Volunteers" are a different matter altogether.

[costard]

Ssgt and their performance dismal, and it could not be helped with some delivery of additional Javelins alone.

Not when the problem was the efficiency of the Russian AA. But even then, what did he [the Georgian president] think they could do, drag a deeply suspicious western public into another war, this one with Russia? He really doesn't understand a democratic system. The people who fight vote. And if they vote not to fight, they don't.

[John Kettler]

SSgt Viljuri,

Your response is ambiguous. Are you saying the Russians no longer use that readiness system, you're challenging my assessment, or both? There used to be a direct relationship between category and equipment, modified with the stipulation that the cutting edge stuff wasn't in the GSFG but rather, the Western Military District.

I'm impressed that the Russians committed veteran troops to the fray, but am somewhat surprised their AFVs weren't more modern. OTOH, if what used to be called the GUSM (Strategic Deception Directorate in English) is still extant, it would be entirely reasonable not to see the latest and the greatest in use, given the expected heavy coverage in the media and all those interested eyeballs watching everything that moved.
Best to keep that card for something really important, and Georgia wasn't it.

Regards,

John Kettler

[SSgt Viljuri]

SSgt Viljuri,

Your response is ambiguous. Are you saying the Russians no longer use that readiness system, you're challenging my assessment, or both? There used to be a direct relationship between category and equipment, modified with the stipulation that the cutting edge stuff wasn't in the GSFG but rather, the Western Military District.

I'm impressed that the Russians committed veteran troops to the fray, but am somewhat surprised their AFVs weren't more modern. OTOH, if what used to be called the GUSM (Strategic Deception Directorate in English) is still extant, it would be entirely reasonable not to see the latest and the greatest in use, given the expected heavy coverage in the media and all those interested eyeballs watching everything that moved.
Best to keep that card for something really important, and Georgia wasn't it.

Regards,

John Kettler

Bulk of the forces were from the South, Chechnya and so on. They are not equipped with same stuff than Leningrad military district's forces are, but are still among the best operationally tested units they have.

On paper there are hundreds of units that just don't exist any more, what ever the readiness level assigned officially.

[John Kettler]

Cease Fire Signed By Medvedev! Details here. Plan was signed two hours ago.

http://www.expressindia.com/latest-news/Medvedev-signs-truce-with-Georgia/349605/


SSgt Viljuri,

Appreciate clarification, and that is a change from how things used to be done. I always liked the Russian gallows humor of calling Cat C divisions castrirovannye, "castrated" rather than cadrirovannye, "cadre" because they were so unbelievably devoid of nearly everything. The tanks, what few there were and obsolete by normal military standards, for example, had drivers only, unless a platoon leader or higher commander "owned" it. Would also observe that I haven't been in a position to stay on top of the post SU collapse changes in the Russian Army, though I must say I am still in some shock over the unbelievable material Warfare.ru presents on what's unit's where and how much of what it has, this from a nation that once classified its soap production figure!

Regards,

John Kettler

[BigDukeSixField]

I think the reason 58th army didn't have top-grade equipment (I made friends with the crew of a T-62 fer Pete's sake) is that the Russians decided they didn't need it. Why send the latest tank up against the Georgians if the Georgians have some TOW squirreled away somewhere? Besides, it's arguable BMPI is a better vehicle for city fighting.

Which reminds me, no ATGM mounted, anywhere. The Russians were not expecting their carriers to hit tanks, it seems.

I think the thing to remember is that the units the Russians shoved in were very solid on the personnel level. The peacekeepers are picked troops I would say roughly approximately with US airborne, heck, lots of the peacekeepers were wearing the airborne telniashka shirt. Those guys seemed to be top of the line.

The mech boys seemed to be solid, confident, and not too much into military rigamarole. They were very obviously field soldiers that didn't bother with much of anything that didn't have to do with, er, field soldiering. I can't say much about their tank gunnery skills one way or another, but I think these were the kind of Russians that knew their vehicles and were pretty good at keeping them running. Just a feeling, no statistics. Probably US tankers could outshoot them, but I'm not so sure the Russians would come in second in a cross-country race over a couple of hundred kilometers.

Yeah, I mean the Roki tunnel. Although it's not the only tunnel through the mountains, the Russians could have come through the tunnel by Kazbegi Mountain, if the Roki tunnel were closed.

[Blackhorse]

BigDukeSix,

It is most incredible and awesome that you are able to provide such interesting and insightful first-hand accounts. Many many thanks for that. I'm sure you have been in a bit of danger on an occasion or two.

If I may ask, what brings you into the area of operations and into such close proximity with the two Armies?

Stay safe and warmest regards,

BH

[CoFarmer]

http://i35.tinypic.com/wgzuvq.gif

http://i34.tinypic.com/2jcv8ch.jpg

http://i38.tinypic.com/23ur3ox.jpg

[volfrahm]

BigDuke, how likely is it that Georgia will gain admittance to NATO? Isn't this the obvious step for the powers against Russia? What use would the Russian military have if Ukraine and Georgia are admitted into NATO? France and Germany obviously don't want them to, but how much do they really matter anyway?

[Abbott]

Like how? Condie's "If Russia doesn't stand down, we will take appropriate action" is the emptiest of threats. Define "appropriate action"? Kick them out of the G8? Haw! Exclude them from negotiations with Iran / North Korea? Never happen.

Ya know, this is just the sort of opportunity Putin has been looking for to show that the US is all talk and no action. That Russia still controls it's borders. I think he's proven his point.

"We are now harvesting the fruit of many months of hard work," said Polish Foreign Minister Radoslaw Sikorski at a joint press conference with U.S. Undersecretary of State John Rood in Warsaw. "Only people of ill intent should fear this agreement."- Statement by the Polish Foreign Minister.

A top Russian general said Friday that Poland's agreement to accept a U.S. missile interceptor base exposes the ex-communist nation to attack, possibly by nuclear weapons. "Poland, by deploying (the system) is exposing itself to a strike - 100 percent," Nogovitsyn, the deputy chief of staff, was quoted as saying.With that irrational and meaningless statement Russia has become absurd. You know its funny, Poland has been hemming and hawing about taking action on the missiles for a long time. Now everyone gets what they wanted, except Russia, who got played. Russia gets to renegotiate borders as a consolation prize.

[costard]

Russia has signed the peace deal, with a proviso that certain security provisions be met. I see on the BBC map that there is a military base and an airbase south of Tblisi - have these been dismantled yet?

volfrahm,
obvious? for what reason would they buy into the losing side of a fait accompli? If they do buy in (and cash is far less readily available these days, and getting to be more so) what can the Western democracies say to their voting populace to convince them that it'd be money well spent?
I can't see that military supply can be maintained into Georgia without Russian agreement - at least not until Pakistan, Iran and Afghanistan are all well and truly pacified.
Not likely.

[costard]

With that irrational and meaningless statement Russia has become absurd. You know its funny, Poland has been hemming and hawing about taking action on the missiles for a long time. Now everyone gets what they wanted, except Russia, who got played. Russia gets to renegotiate borders as a consolation prize.

nice one... :cool:

[BigDukeSixField]

Blackhorse,

I'm a reporter and Georgia is one of the places I write about. I was at the Igoeti checkpoint yesterday and watched the Russians finally fall back a full 4 kilometers. The EU and OSCE had people there and they were really pissed that the Russians weren't going back any further. The Russian soldiers know the deal, they say no one is going to make them leave Georgia except their commanders, words don't impress tank regiments very much.

Wolfram,

Strangely enough there is a school of thought here that goes that Saakashvili triggered the war precisely so that afterwards, the West would have no choice but to let Georgia into NATO. We'll see, but my opinion even Saakashvili isn't nuts enough to trade Russian occupation of about 1/3 of his country (if you count Abkhazia and Ossetia) for a ticket into NATO. Me, I think it's more likely Saakashvili just thought his US-trained army would make short work of the Ossetians and the Russian peacekeepers, and like I said that kind of logic is stupid, but not beyond Saakashvili. Only a fool assumes you can dig motivated Russian infantry out of their holes with some area artillery barrages, but basically, this is what I think Saakashvili did.

He has ofcourse a point that before the war the Ossetians were picking fights and killing Georgians with sniping and mortars, but nasty as it is that's to my mind not justification for a suicidal attack directly onto Russian troops.

I think that behind the scenes alot of the Western leaders are pretty pissed at Saakashvili, Merkel called him "a bit reckless" yesterday. So whether Georgia winds up in NATO pretty much depends on how serious the West is about backing up a guy, that they pretty much all think picked a fight with Russia at the wrong place and time. On the one hand they don't like little countries forcing them into a conflict with Russia, but on the other hand if they don't back up Georgia then they look like dwebes.

They can talk about supporting democracy all they want, but the truth is going to be visible in the money. Big Western money into Georgia = Georgia gets into NATO soon. Little Western money into Georgia = Georgia better learn Russian fast.

I think the US government right now just might be a little more inclined to confront the Russians than might otherwise be expected, as the main US military tool for the region is the Navy, which is not nearly as overtaxed as the Army, and also could use the precedent of conducting real operations in the Black Sea, all they've done so far is trained. Bush on Wednesday said he was sending the US Navy to give Georgia "humanitarian aid", and there's little way to do that with Russia's Black Sea fleet enforcing an effective blockade of Georgia's ports.

So me, I'm wondering when the US Navy is going to show up, it would be pretty interesting to see how how tough the Russians talk when they've got the American swabbies and all their super-duper computerized boats and sensors and sattelites to think about.

The Russian army has been fairly impressive from a ground force competence POV, but they're not fooling any one about their technical level at sea or in the air. When they were bombing Georgia for the first time the Russians used laser-guided bombs in combat - that's Vietnam technology. I doubt the Russians could move an airplane or a ship without the Americans knowing about it, and the Russians know that too.

So since it's obvious the US Navy isn't going to fire on the Russians, and vice versa, and the Americans have this huge tech edge, I'm really curious to find out what will happen when the US missile frigate squadron or whatever it is shows up off Georgia's coast...unless of course Bush was lying, and said he going to send the navy when in fact he has no intention of doing it.

So I bet the Russians are waiting with great interest on that one as well.

I bet there is some one reading this forums that could provide input, you out there?

[Boris London]

Blackhorse,



Strangely enough there is a school of thought here that goes that Saakashvili triggered the war precisely so that afterwards, the West would have no choice but to let Georgia into NATO. We'll see, but my opinion even Saakashvili isn't nuts enough to trade Russian occupation of about 1/3 of his country (if you count Abkhazia and Ossetia) for a ticket into NATO. Me, I think it's more likely Saakashvili just thought his US-trained army would make short work of the Ossetians and the Russian peacekeepers, and like I said that kind of logic is stupid, but not beyond Saakashvili. Only a fool assumes you can dig motivated Russian infantry out of their holes with some area artillery barrages, but basically, this is what I think Saakashvili did.
re?

excellent insider posting Bigduke

a few thoughts..

if the airstrike on the tunnel had succeeded would the "plan" have worked or at least have had a chance

or was te georgian army incapable of fulfilling any mission?

could the russians have responded with a black sea coast landing and airborne troops alone or was the mech-inf division the big stick needed to break georgian resistance?

what level of knowledge/backing/sanction did the US give/have beforehand?

there seems some confusion on that point

Boris
london

[CoFarmer]

Saakashvili eats own necktie: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EBh9D2WIGsE


http://i36.tinypic.com/23iwldu.jpg

http://i38.tinypic.com/hwz9y9.jpg

[BigDukeSixField]

Boris,

Had the airstrike against the Roki tunnel succeeded, the Russians still could have brought in whatever they felt like by sea. Or, they could have pushed through another tunnel to the east, near Mount Kazbegi, which would have been outside Ossetia, but as we have seen the Russians are not too shy about expanding conflict areas.

The amazing thing to me is that the Georgians had a 5-plane air force, Su-25, and they lost two of them attempting to hit the tunnel mouth. Russian ADA expected them, apparently. So all in all the moment the Russians intervened the Georgians were deep in it, and for the life of me I can't figure out how the Georgians figured the Russians wouldn't intervene.

The Georgian army is/was an infantry artillery force with some tanks, but not much combined arms training. They had reasonable infantry tactics training and probably could have done fine clearing villages against other infantry. But as noted they had next to no AT capacity, and again going to war with Russia without AT capacity is like going to war with the US with no way to deal with US air. The more I think about it the more amazed I am the Georgians did it, what could they have been thinking?

There are differing rumors on what the US did or did not tell the Georgians before the attack. Some Georgians are saying the US gave satellite intelligence showing the Georgians the Russians were concentrating forces vs. Ossetia, but no confirm on that. If they did then it's still not conclusive, does that mean the Georgians decided to launch a pre-emptive strike before the Russians attacked themselves, or did they just ignore US advice?

There is plenty of confusion as the Georgian government spin is "we had to do this because otherwise we would be bowing down before the Russians." Sounds good, except that they are bowing down before the Russians right now.

excellent insider posting Bigduke

a few thoughts..

if the airstrike on the tunnel had succeeded would the "plan" have worked or at least have had a chance

or was te georgian army incapable of fulfilling any mission?

could the russians have responded with a black sea coast landing and airborne troops alone or was the mech-inf division the big stick needed to break georgian resistance?

what level of knowledge/backing/sanction did the US give/have beforehand?

there seems some confusion on that point

Boris
london

[Boris London]

The more I think about it the more amazed I am the Georgians did it, what could they have been thinking?


pretty much what most of us thought from the start over at dosomefink (http://dosomefink.com/phpbb2/index.php?topic=3217.0)

cheers

send the pix if you can. email address in your PM box.

Boris
London

[Boris London]

http://dosomefink.com/mkportal/modules/gallery/album/a_929.jpg

photo taken by Bigduke6 showing Russian squadie dress code or lack off

The photographer requests you credit him if you wish to post any of these pictures elsewhere, for more information mail stefankorshak@gmail.com.

have a bunch will post more at Domesomefink image gallery when i get a free hour tonight.

cheers bigduke

photo massive on screen need to resize.. view by visiting link

Boris
London

[easy-v]

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/georgia/2570754/Georgia-conflict-How-a-flat-tyre-took-the-Caucasus-to-war.html

Interesting article on the start of this whole disaster:
It also hints at a ground operation to attack the Kurta bridge, in conjunction with the Roki tunnel air attack.


A flat tyre on a Russian diplomatic car triggered the slide to war in Georgia after it forced the cancellation of key peace talks the day before fighting erupted, The Sunday Telegraph has learned.

Trouble had been brewing in the disputed South Ossetian region for weeks as Moscow-backed militias skirmished with Georgian troops, yet Russian-brokered negotiations between the Georgian government and the separatists had continued.

But the first substantial face-to-face talks on August 7 fell through after a farcical chain of events in which the top Russian diplomat claimed he was unable to attend the meeting in South Ossetia because his car tyre had run flat.

Refusing to take his excuse at face value, the Georgian delegation then assumed they were being lured into a trap, and began the shelling that invited the Russian invasion.

Details of how such a mundane incident sparked the crisis that now threatens to redraw global East-West relations emerged during an interview given to The Sunday Telegraph last week by Timur Yakobashvili, Georgia's chief negotiator. He recalled how on August 7, he traveled to the South Ossetian capital, Tskhinvali, for what he hoped would be a ground breaking round-the-table meeting. Waiting for him was a Russian General, Marat Kulakhmetov - but there was no sign of his Russian diplomatic counterpart, Yuri Popov, who was supposed to be chairing the talks, nor were any South Ossetian officials present.

"It was disturbing atmosphere," recalled Mr Yakobashvili. "Two days before, the South Ossetians had started using Russian positions to shoot at our troops. But we decided to make the trip anyway because a direct meeting would have been a breakthrough."

Asked as to whereabouts of the rest of the delegation, General Kulakhmetov was polite but blunt. He held up his phone to the Georgian negotiator's ear to demonstrate that the South Ossetian delegate had turned his mobile off.

A second mobile phone call to Yuri Popov, the Russian diplomat, chairman of the talks, added an element of the ridiculous to the impasse. "I called and spoke to Popov and he said he could not get to the office because his car had a flat tyre," said Mr Yakobashvili. "This was preposterous. I said the delegation must have more cars. He said there is another car but its tyre is flat too. At this point I knew it was a trap and I was very angry."

But Gen Kulakhmetov was not finished. "He had a message for me," said Mr Yakobashvili. "He said he could not control the South Ossetians while there was Georgian military on the boundary. He said we must declare a unilateral ceasefire before the Russians could push them back."

Before Mr Yakobashvili left the South Ossetian capital, Georgia's President Mikheil Saakashvili was preparing to make a ceasefire declaration on national television.

But as he came off air, he was handed a folder containing what the Georgians claim were US-provided satellite photos of a column of Russian armour advancing towards the Roki tunnel, the passageway that links South Ossetia to Russia.

In the volatile and paranoid world of Caucasian politics, there was only one way in which such photos would be interpreted. The Georgian government concluded Russia had devised a premeditated exercise to humiliate its envoy during his trip to Tskhinvali, and in the heat of the moment, the flat tyre was interpreted as a contemptuous first move for a well-planned invasion. The Georgians also realised that they had only one opportunity to stop the Russian column - at the Kurta bridge, which straddles a high ravine south of the tunnel.

"This was a heavy armoured Russian column, moving slowly, on very rugged terrain," said Georgian Prime Minister Lado Gurgenidze, who is adamant that the Russians had intended an ambush. "Think about how many hours of preparation, assembly, then marching, it would take for that column, moving at that speed on rugged terrain to be at the Kurta bridge at six in the morning. If that isn't a premeditated invasion, I don't know what is."

Georgia also calculated that by dawn the following the day, the world's attention would be focused on Beijing for the opening of the Olympic Games. Its US-trained Georgian army therefore formed an audacious plan to sabotage the bridge more than 100 miles behind enemy lines. The operation, however, was a only a partial success. The bridge was damaged and almost one dozen Russian vehicles were blown up, but the Russians then regrouped and repulsed the Georgians.

From a trival beginnings, war had ignited in the tiny mountainous statelet.

Georgia decided to establish a defensive line north of Tskinvali, the self-declared capital of South Ossetia. By midnight shelling on both sides was intense. Russia's version of events has it that the Georgians were already on the move while Mr Yakobashvili met the Russian general. "They moved their forces into positions on high ground around Tskinvali," a Russian official claimed. "It's very simple: The Georgians decided to take South Ossetia by force. They thought we'd whine like over Kosovo, but our response was very tough."

[Boris London]

http://dosomefink.com/mkportal/modules/gallery/album/a_943.png
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Boris
London

[Boris London]

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Boris
London

[Stalin's Organist]

The soldiers above with white cloth around one arm and on the tank without ERA are Sth Ossetians or other irregulars - the white cloth is the "field sign" for them.

They're the ones now being reported as doign the ethnic clensing of Georgian villages in Sth Ossetia.

[Michael Emrys]

Those are some pretty serious-looking buggers. I'd want to be sure all my ducks were in a row before I went and picked a fight with them.

Michael

[BigDukeSixField]

SO,

On the white cloth I saw both Ossetians and Russian regular army wearing it. I talked a long time with that T-62 crew and I'm personally convinced they were a standard batch of Ivans. I'd lay money on it, there wasn't an "ethnic Caucasian" among them, they all had regional Russian accents. And some of the guys wearing white armbands look like Genghiz Khan, no way those were Ossetians. Although looking at the photographs it seems like the peacekeepers weren't wearing white armbands.

So my guess is, the white armband was an IFF thing the 17th Mech ordered.

That T-62 crew was a pretty good bunch of guys BTW, NATO soldiers usually are not nearly that friendly. The sort of bald guy with the big nose turned out to be a Spartak Moscow fan, and when I ribbed him that their old enemies Dynamo Kyiv had just stomped them 4-1, he thought it was pretty funny that he had invaded Georgia only to find a Dynamo Kyiv fan.

Boris,

Very professional job, real slick.

Easy-color,

That Telegraph story is of course entertaining, but it overlooks the issue of how it would also have taken the Georgians time to put together an infantry/artillery attack on Tsvinkhali. Trucks, troops, shells, fire planning, phase lines, OPs. I find it questionable that the Georgian army could or would move from its bases to the field and initiate an offensive like that in 24-48 hours.

This is not to defend the Russians, they are of course being absolutely classic Russians, they're happiest when they're driving their tanks around some one else's country.

But I think both sides were preparing for war this time. The difference between the Georgians and the Russians as I see it is, the Russians put together a realistic plan to get the results they wanted, and the Georgians had a hope-based plan.

[John Kettler]

Have just posted a bunch of highly pertinent material in the CMSF Breaking News (Red on Red) thread. Call it blockbuster, if true. Am especially interested in feedback from BigDukeSixField. See last two pages here.

http://www.battlefront.com/community/showthread.php?t=82992

Regards,

John Kettler

[Boeman]

With regards to war booty, recent reports cite the Russians appear to be making off with US military equipment that was destined to be shipped back to the United States.

According to the video shown by CNN, Russian troops drove off with a number of Hummers, including the more recent versions that are currently used in Iraq. Various foodstuffs, small arms and other items of US origin were also taken.

Somehow, I don't think they have any plans to return them.

[Wilhammer]

So, this was a giant raid on Wal-Mart's sporting goods department?

[Lars]

The Hummers mean nothing.

Poti itself, however, means everything. No port = no outside supply.

In other words, the US Navy can just piss off.

[Boeman]

The Hummers mean nothing.

Poti itself, however, means everything. No port = no outside supply.

In other words, the US Navy can just piss off.

The vehicles themselves mean nothing.

But what of the communications equipment that were installed? Are they of similar gear deployed by the US military and if so, would it make it easier for the Russians to hack into/intercept small ground unit communications?

There was a report dating back a year ago citing that some of the communications gear used in the Hummers/AFVs during (then named) Operation Crusade still had the same frequency channels used by troops from Desert Storm.

The story was quietly buried but no indication was given as to whether or not this area of neglect was rectified.

[BigDukeSixField]

The Russians are carting off everything military and Georgian that isn't nailed down and that they can lay their hands on, and what they can't pry up, they are destroying in place.

The Russian troops themselves are hilarious, it's like they went to a NATO quartermaster or Ranger Joe's or something and went shopping. Rucks, web gear, canteens, bayonets - all that personal stuff, they've taken from the Georgians and it's each Russian gets to equip himself. I've seen BTRs piled with standard US-army issue Alice packs with the bedrolls rolled on top just like they teach you in basic training. The Georgians in Gori basically left their barracks and everything in it. I've seen Russian peacekeeper infantry wearing web gear with the mobile phone of the previous Georgian owner still in it. Did a pretty funny story about that.

Also the Russians have been carting special forces speed boats out of Poti, and all those coast guard cutters the US donated to Georgia? The Russians looted them, and then sunk them, three of them still have their masts sticking up out of Poti harbor. Right now the Russians are dismantling the Georgian base at Senaki. The Russian high command says they captured 65 Georgian tanks of which 44 are in fine condition and now are Russian property. Georgian light armored vehicles captured by the Russians number over 100. Of 24 x modern NATO-standard 152mm SP howitzers Saakashvili bought from the Czech republic, 5 of them are now in Russian army inventory. About 2,000 small arms captured as well, about 1/2 US manufacture.

All in all, not exactly shining battlefield performance for an army the US has been training and financing since 2002.

To be fair, of course, most of the US-trained Georgians were in Iraq for most of the war. Third biggest contingent on the ground (well it was). Maybe Saakashvili was betting that would buy him some real US support. So far he's got a pair of C17es loaded with "humanitarian aid", and some promises.

I'd say the US is ahead on the deal.

[Boeman]

The Russians are carting off everything military and Georgian that isn't nailed down and that they can lay their hands on, and what they can't pry up, they are destroying in place.

The Russian troops themselves are hilarious, it's like they went to a NATO quartermaster or Ranger Joe's or something and went shopping. Rucks, web gear, canteens, bayonets - all that personal stuff, they've taken from the Georgians and it's each Russian gets to equip himself. I've seen BTRs piled with standard US-army issue Alice packs with the bedrolls rolled on top just like they teach you in basic training. The Georgians in Gori basically left their barracks and everything in it. I've seen Russian peacekeeper infantry wearing web gear with the mobile phone of the previous Georgian owner still in it. Did a pretty funny story about that.

Also the Russians have been carting special forces speed boats out of Poti, and all those coast guard cutters the US donated to Georgia? The Russians looted them, and then sunk them, three of them still have their masts sticking up out of Poti harbor. Right now the Russians are dismantling the Georgian base at Senaki. The Russian high command says they captured 65 Georgian tanks of which 44 are in fine condition and now are Russian property. Georgian light armored vehicles captured by the Russians number over 100. Of 24 x modern NATO-standard 152mm SP howitzers Saakashvili bought from the Czech republic, 5 of them are now in Russian army inventory. About 2,000 small arms captured as well, about 1/2 US manufacture.

All in all, not exactly shining battlefield performance for an army the US has been training and financing since 2002.

To be fair, of course, most of the US-trained Georgians were in Iraq for most of the war. Third biggest contingent on the ground (well it was). Maybe Saakashvili was betting that would buy him some real US support. So far he's got a pair of C17es loaded with "humanitarian aid", and some promises.

I'd say the US is ahead on the deal.

Would it be fair to say that the current campaign is reminiscent of the South Vietnamese forces who were also equipped and trained by Americans?

As I recall, in 1974, Communist forces made use of everything from captured South Vietnamese artillery to boots on their drive towards Saigon. Personal items such as fans, portable radios, magazines and other luxury goods were highly sought after prizes which individual NVA soldiers raced each other for.

[Lars]

The vehicles themselves mean nothing.

But what of the communications equipment that were installed? Are they of similar gear deployed by the US military and if so, would it make it easier for the Russians to hack into/intercept small ground unit communications?

There was a report dating back a year ago citing that some of the communications gear used in the Hummers/AFVs during (then named) Operation Crusade still had the same frequency channels used by troops from Desert Storm.

The story was quietly buried but no indication was given as to whether or not this area of neglect was rectified.
A bit of a triviality at this point.

Besides, they can just be re-chipped any old time.

[Lars]

How to hurt an oligarch


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Russian equities tumbled 5% Tuesday, as already battered investor sentiment was further dented by falling commodity prices and a strongly worded statement from NATO saying that "business as usual" with Russia can't continue following the military conflict in Georgia.

[Abbott]

Yeah, Putin is pissed he got played in Poland, borders and looting is the consolation prize. Pretty typical behavior by the Russian military, I doubt if anyone is surprised by it.

[Abbott]

double down post.

[BigDukeSixField]

I think that the Russians' grabbing everything has more to do with a desire to destroy Georgian military capacity, than to add stuff to the equipment-poor Russian army. US personal gear just is more user-friendly, the web belts and rucks have wider shoulder straps than the Russian issue, US grenade belts have room for more grenades, US canteens are bigger, stuff like that. The weapons are all Russian.